Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Chiefs, while the market favors Falcons (70%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (64%) · Chiefs at 31¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Chiefs31¢Falcons69¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chiefs

Consensus Traders

Chiefs 64%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$63.52

Smart Money Entry

45.3¢ → 30.5¢

-33% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Falcons 70%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs31%

Falcons70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Falcons4 traders

Total Value$453.68

Total Shares795

Combined PnL+$1.01

Chiefs7 traders

Total Value$673.58

Total Shares1,627

Combined PnL-$64.54

Falcons — 36%Chiefs — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrChiefs 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedChiefs 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Chiefs 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Falconsavg 59¢	$246.46	$217.88	-$28.57	49% 486-502 (988)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Chiefsavg 46¢	$255.56	$213.89	-$41.67	51% 572-546 (1118)
TA takeormakeCTR	Chiefsavg 41¢	$169.74	$211.14	+$41.4	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
65 6512395314597884	Falconsavg 53.3¢	$178.5	$204.87	+$26.37	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Chiefsavg 48¢	$240	$192.5	-$47.5	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Falconsavg 52¢	$23.87	$28.23	+$4.36	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Chiefsavg 47.4¢	$26.05	$21.18	-$4.88	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Chiefsavg 44¢	$26.47	$17.15	-$9.32	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
RN1CTR<$100	Chiefsavg 47¢	$13.06	$11.09	-$1.97	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Chiefsavg 42¢	$7.24	$6.64	-$0.6	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Falconsavg 74¢	$3.84	$2.7	-$1.14	39% 234-370 (604)

Anon455

Falcons

Invested

$246.46

Value

$217.88

PnL

-$28.57

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$255.56

Value

$213.89

PnL

-$41.67

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

takeormakeCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$169.74

Value

$211.14

PnL

+$41.4

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

6512395314597884

Falcons

Invested

$178.5

Value

$204.87

PnL

+$26.37

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$240

Value

$192.5

PnL

-$47.5

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Falcons

Invested

$23.87

Value

$28.23

PnL

+$4.36

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$26.05

Value

$21.18

PnL

-$4.88

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$26.47

Value

$17.15

PnL

-$9.32

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

RN1CTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$13.06

Value

$11.09

PnL

-$1.97

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$7.24

Value

$6.64

PnL

-$0.6

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

BoomLaLa<$100

Falcons

Invested

$3.84

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$1.14

Record

39%

234-370 (604)

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 31%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Falcons 70%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrChiefs 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedChiefs 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Chiefs 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chiefs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.