Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Falcons, while the market favors Chiefs (63%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Chiefs vs. Falcons
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Falcons (80%) · Falcons at 37¢ · $892 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Falcons
5
Falcons 80%
$891.52
$30.08
34.5¢ → 37¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralFalcons at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Chiefs 63%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR | Falconsavg 34¢ | $393.7 | $487.23 | +$31.08 | 48% 71959-77656 (149615) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR | Falconsavg 36¢ | $180 | $180 | +$2.5 | 53% 14441-12732 (27173) |
GA Gaditima | Chiefsavg 69¢ | $105.26 | $99.19 | -$6.08 | 47% 8784-9968 (18752) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Falconsavg 36¢ | $91.69 | $91.69 | +$0 | 52% 49211-46180 (95391) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Falconsavg 29.4¢ | $19.23 | $33.41 | +$2.58 | 53% 28233-25512 (53745) |
Invested
$393.7
Value
$487.23
PnL
+$31.08
Record
48%
71959-77656 (149615)
Invested
$180
Value
$180
PnL
+$2.5
Record
53%
14441-12732 (27173)
Invested
$105.26
Value
$99.19
PnL
-$6.08
Record
47%
8784-9968 (18752)
Invested
$91.69
Value
$91.69
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
49211-46180 (95391)
Invested
$19.23
Value
$33.41
PnL
+$2.58
Record
53%
28233-25512 (53745)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.