Spread: Jaguars (-16.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Titans (70%) · Titans at 92¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Jaguars8¢Titans92¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Titans

Consensus Traders

Titans 70%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$140.47

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 92¢

+69% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralTitans at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Titans

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Jaguars8%

Titans92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Titans7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,721

Combined PnL+$249.67

Jaguars3 traders

Total Value$182.69

Total Shares554

Combined PnL-$109.21

Titans — 70%Jaguars — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Titans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJaguars 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJaguars 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedTitans 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Titans 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Titansavg 54¢	$393.57	$488.31	+$94.75	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Titansavg 51.3¢	$310.74	$405.7	+$94.96	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Jaguarsavg 54¢	$279.72	$170.94	-$108.78	47% 676-773 (1449)
65 6512395314597884	Titansavg 54¢	$108	$134	+$26	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
NO NotJump<$100	Titansavg 69.1¢	$71.12	$91.78	+$20.65	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
CM cm2897<$100	Titansavg 67¢	$22.44	$31.32	+$8.88	49% 1251-1296 (2547)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Titansavg 65¢	$21.45	$22.11	+$0.66	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
PA Pan9X<$100	Titansavg 46¢	$8.28	$12.06	+$3.78	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Jaguarsavg 33¢	$11.05	$11.05	+$0	57% 3683-2778 (6461)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Jaguarsavg 53¢	$1.13	$0.7	-$0.43	49% 497-511 (1008)

RN1

Titans

Invested

$393.57

Value

$488.31

PnL

+$94.75

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Titans

Invested

$310.74

Value

$405.7

PnL

+$94.96

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Jaguars

Invested

$279.72

Value

$170.94

PnL

-$108.78

Record

47%

676-773 (1449)

6512395314597884

Titans

Invested

$108

Value

$134

PnL

+$26

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

NotJump<$100

Titans

Invested

$71.12

Value

$91.78

PnL

+$20.65

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

cm2897<$100

Titans

Invested

$22.44

Value

$31.32

PnL

+$8.88

Record

49%

1251-1296 (2547)

topdogbigboi<$100

Titans

Invested

$21.45

Value

$22.11

PnL

+$0.66

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

Pan9X<$100

Titans

Invested

$8.28

Value

$12.06

PnL

+$3.78

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$11.05

Value

$11.05

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

3683-2778 (6461)

Anon455CTR<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$1.13

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$0.43

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

Research grade

NeutralTitans at 92%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Titans

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Titans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJaguars 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJaguars 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedTitans 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Titans 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Titans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.