Spread: Jaguars (-14.5)

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Jaguars (60%) · Jaguars at 56¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Jaguars56¢Titans44¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jaguars

Consensus Traders

Jaguars 60%

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

-$145.25

Smart Money Entry

46.1¢ → 55.5¢

+20% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralJaguars at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jaguars

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jaguars56%

Titans45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Titans6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,708

Combined PnL-$378.13

Jaguars9 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares6,768

Combined PnL+$232.88

Titans — 40%Jaguars — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on Jaguars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTitans 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedJaguars 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jaguars 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CM cm2897CTR	Titansavg 55¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	-$368.69	49% 1237-1284 (2521)
RN1	Jaguarsavg 45¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$119.4	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
65 6512395314597884	Jaguarsavg 45.7¢	$524.24	$573.77	+$49.53	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Jaguarsavg 51¢	$603.62	$561.69	-$41.94	51% 572-546 (1118)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Titansavg 49¢	$540.15	$551.18	+$11.02	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
JU justaluckydude	Jaguarsavg 45¢	$475.65	$528.5	+$52.85	50% 658-658 (1316)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Jaguarsavg 45.7¢	$298.01	$319.87	+$21.86	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Titansavg 61.8¢	$125.41	$101.42	-$24	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
LI Limousin<$100	Jaguarsavg 40.7¢	$79.4	$92.61	+$13.21	38% 1353-2203 (3556)
LI LightParadox<$100	Jaguarsavg 42.4¢	$52.93	$70.5	+$17.57	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Titansavg 51¢	$53.48	$52.43	-$1.05	46% 653-760 (1413)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Titansavg 54¢	$34.02	$31.5	-$2.52	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Titansavg 48¢	$36.31	$27.35	+$7.1	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
NO NotJump<$100	Jaguarsavg 51¢	$25.5	$25	-$0.5	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jaguarsavg 45¢	$8.1	$9	+$0.9	50% 2197-2203 (4400)

cm2897CTR

Titans

Invested

$1,763.3

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$368.69

Record

49%

1237-1284 (2521)

RN1

Jaguars

Invested

$1,075.6

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$119.4

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

6512395314597884

Jaguars

Invested

$524.24

Value

$573.77

PnL

+$49.53

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Jaguars

Invested

$603.62

Value

$561.69

PnL

-$41.94

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Titans

Invested

$540.15

Value

$551.18

PnL

+$11.02

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

justaluckydude

Jaguars

Invested

$475.65

Value

$528.5

PnL

+$52.85

Record

50%

658-658 (1316)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Jaguars

Invested

$298.01

Value

$319.87

PnL

+$21.86

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

topdogbigboiCTR

Titans

Invested

$125.41

Value

$101.42

PnL

-$24

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

Limousin<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$79.4

Value

$92.61

PnL

+$13.21

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

LightParadox<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$52.93

Value

$70.5

PnL

+$17.57

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Titans

Invested

$53.48

Value

$52.43

PnL

-$1.05

Record

46%

653-760 (1413)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Titans

Invested

$34.02

Value

$31.5

PnL

-$2.52

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

VenusianCTR<$100

Titans

Invested

$36.31

Value

$27.35

PnL

+$7.1

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

NotJump<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$25.5

Value

$25

PnL

-$0.5

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Pan9X<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$8.1

Value

PnL

+$0.9

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

Research grade

NeutralJaguars at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jaguars

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on Jaguars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTitans 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedJaguars 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jaguars 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jaguars wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.