Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Jaguars vs. Ravens: O/U 42.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 44¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 6

Over44¢Under56¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$49.37

Smart Money Entry

46.5¢ → 43.5¢

-6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,412

Combined PnL-$16.42

Under3 traders

Total Value$893.26

Total Shares1,764

Combined PnL-$32.95

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 55¢	$700.81	$594.11	-$35.14	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55¢	$326.36	$335.24	+$8.88
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.7¢	$295.5	$258.88	-$44.02
fyrskenCTR	Overavg 46.4¢	$601.9	$563.96	-$37.94	49% 310-329 (639)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Underavg 51.5¢	$518.36	$507.9	-$10.46	53% 642-561 (1203)
PW Pwaddler	Underavg 53.7¢	$376.23	$353.5	-$22.73	48% 431-461 (892)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Overavg 46.8¢	$296.39	$313.3	+$16.91	51% 3571-3496 (7067)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 45.7¢	$119.39	$118.76	-$0.63	54% 17763-14926 (32689)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$73.85	$76.15	+$2.31	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$29.16	$32.08	+$2.92	50% 4917-4837 (9754)
RO roldy<$100	Underavg 54.1¢	$31.62	$31.86	+$0.24	51% 1437-1364 (2801)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$1.16	$1.17	+$0.01	58% 18597-13721 (32318)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$700.81

Value

$594.11

PnL

-$35.14

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

Both legs:

Under$326.3655¢+$8.88

Over$295.549.7¢-$44.02

fyrskenCTR

Over

Invested

$601.9

Value

$563.96

PnL

-$37.94

Record

49%

310-329 (639)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Under

Invested

$518.36

Value

$507.9

PnL

-$10.46

Record

53%

642-561 (1203)

Pwaddler

Under

Invested

$376.23

Value

$353.5

PnL

-$22.73

Record

48%

431-461 (892)

HerdoniaCTR

Over

Invested

$296.39

Value

$313.3

PnL

+$16.91

Record

51%

3571-3496 (7067)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$119.39

Value

$118.76

PnL

-$0.63

Record

54%

17763-14926 (32689)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$73.85

Value

$76.15

PnL

+$2.31

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

hi774cCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.16

Value

$32.08

PnL

+$2.92

Record

50%

4917-4837 (9754)

roldy<$100

Under

Invested

$31.62

Value

$31.86

PnL

+$0.24

Record

51%

1437-1364 (2801)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.16

Value

$1.17

PnL

+$0.01

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 44%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.