Jaguars vs. Ravens: O/U 40.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (30%) · Under at 55¢ · $58K held · ends Nov 6

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 30%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$58.1K

Combined PnL

$617.58

Smart Money Entry

53.7¢ → 54.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$37.9K

Total Shares69,545

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Over7 traders

Total Value$14.3K

Total Shares31,227

Combined PnL-$472.08

Under — 30%Over — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PW Pwaddler	Underavg 53.7¢	$36.3K	$36.8K	+$1.0K	49% 440-465 (905)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 47.3¢	$9.5K	$9.1K	-$345.2	54% 18193-15301 (33494)
HI hi774cARB<$100	Overavg 46¢	$7.7K	$4.8K	+$153.64	46% 5077-5888 (10965)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$28.33
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$181.97
HE HerdoniaCTR	Overavg 46.3¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$39.44	51% 3699-3621 (7320)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 46.6¢	$2.3K	$1.1K	-$6.25	64% 9839-5498 (15337)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.6¢	$814.98	$796.25	-$18.75
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$260	$272.5	+$12.5
PL pltrkr111CTR	Overavg 48¢	$1,000	$958.33	-$52.08	54% 771-644 (1415)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 47.3¢	$1.5K	$875.26	-$29.11	58% 46317-33437 (79754)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 46¢	$579.91	$579.91	-$6.3	48% 347-378 (725)
CUTJALENHURTS	Underavg 51.7¢	$520.08	$547.73	+$35.18	52% 6019-5625 (11644)
TH TheComboConnoisseur	Underavg 54.7¢	$547.45	$544.99	+$5	53% 1093-963 (2056)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Overavg 46¢	$793.89	$389.09	+$0.2	54% 12041-10442 (22483)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$2.53	$2.38	-$0.16	58% 20277-14893 (35170)

Pwaddler

Under

Invested

$36,264.87

Value

$36.8K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

49%

440-465 (905)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$9,478.69

Value

$9.1K

PnL

-$345.2

Record

54%

18193-15301 (33494)

hi774cARB<$100

Over

Invested

$7,683.52

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$153.64

Record

46%

5077-5888 (10965)

Both legs:

Over$2,606.4346¢-$28.33

Under$1,936.6448¢+$181.97

HerdoniaCTR

Over

Invested

$2,431.69

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$39.44

Record

51%

3699-3621 (7320)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,250

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$6.25

Record

64%

9839-5498 (15337)

Both legs:

Over$814.9846.6¢-$18.75

Under$26052¢+$12.5

pltrkr111CTR

Over

Invested

$1,000

Value

$958.33

PnL

-$52.08

Record

54%

771-644 (1415)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,456.93

Value

$875.26

PnL

-$29.11

Record

58%

46317-33437 (79754)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$579.91

Value

$579.91

PnL

-$6.3

Record

48%

347-378 (725)

CUTJALENHURTS

Under

Invested

$520.08

Value

$547.73

PnL

+$35.18

Record

52%

6019-5625 (11644)

TheComboConnoisseur

Under

Invested

$547.45

Value

$544.99

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

1093-963 (2056)

BoomLaLaCTR

Over

Invested

$793.89

Value

$389.09

PnL

+$0.2

Record

54%

12041-10442 (22483)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.53

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.16

Record

58%

20277-14893 (35170)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.