Spread: Jaguars (-10.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Jaguars (67%) · Jaguars at 70¢ · $38K held · ended Nov 1

Jaguars70¢Colts30¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jaguars

Consensus Traders

Jaguars 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$38.0K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

47¢ → 69.5¢

+48% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralJaguars at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jaguars

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jaguars70%

Colts31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jaguars6 traders

Total Value$28.6K

Total Shares42,964

Combined PnL+$8.4K

Colts3 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares30,315

Combined PnL$-6.8K

Jaguars — 67%Colts — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Jaguars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJaguars 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJaguars 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedJaguars 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jaguars 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Jaguarsavg 47¢	$13.3K	$19.7K	+$6.4K	43% 561-738 (1299)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Coltsavg 53¢	$15.9K	$9.2K	$-6.8K	46% 458-531 (989)
0X 0x0A77exmm	Jaguarsavg 47¢	$2.5K	$3.7K	+$1.2K	54% 2337-2025 (4362)
VeryLucky888	Jaguarsavg 47¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	+$27.84	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
DO DolphinBaller	Jaguarsavg 47¢	$1.4K	$2.1K	+$675	47% 100-113 (213)
AN Anon455	Jaguarsavg 47.6¢	$232.93	$337.51	+$104.58	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
JU justaluckydude	Jaguarsavg 46¢	$92	$139	+$47	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
fyrskenCTR	Coltsavg 53¢	$106	$106	+$0	49% 290-305 (595)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Jaguarsavg 47¢	$71.86	$72.33	+$0.74	54% 3405-2950 (6355)
└ Jaguars leg	Jaguarsavg 47¢	$47	$47	+$0.5
└ Colts leg	Coltsavg 52¢	$24.86	$25.33	+$0.24
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Coltsavg 54¢	$54.65	$39.68	-$14.97	53% 4278-3736 (8014)

BreakTheBank

Jaguars

Invested

$13,341.91

Value

$19.7K

PnL

+$6.4K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Colts

Invested

$15,916.21

Value

$9.2K

PnL

$-6.8K

Record

46%

458-531 (989)

0x0A77exmm

Jaguars

Invested

$2,499.93

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

54%

2337-2025 (4362)

VeryLucky888

Jaguars

Invested

$2,704.15

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$27.84

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

DolphinBaller

Jaguars

Invested

$1,410

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$675

Record

47%

100-113 (213)

Anon455

Jaguars

Invested

$232.93

Value

$337.51

PnL

+$104.58

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

justaluckydude

Jaguars

Invested

$92

Value

$139

PnL

+$47

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

fyrskenCTR

Colts

Invested

$106

Value

$106

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

290-305 (595)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$71.86

Value

$72.33

PnL

+$0.74

Record

54%

3405-2950 (6355)

Both legs:

Invested

$54.65

Value

$39.68

PnL

-$14.97

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

Research grade

NeutralJaguars at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jaguars

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Jaguars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJaguars 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJaguars 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedJaguars 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jaguars 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jaguars wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.