Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Colts, while the market favors Jaguars (80%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Colts vs. Jaguars
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (75%) · Colts at 20¢ · $624 held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Colts
4
Colts 75%
$623.77
$2.53
19.4¢ → 20¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidColts at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Jaguars 80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RollAwayTheDew | Jaguarsavg 80¢ | $240 | $240 | +$4.5 | 53% 452-396 (848) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Coltsavg 20¢ | $175.17 | $166.41 | -$13.14 | 58% 42662-31048 (73710) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Coltsavg 19¢ | $149.19 | $157.36 | +$8.17 | 72% 6827-2619 (9446) |
 fyrskenCTR<$100 | Coltsavg 19¢ | $57 | $60 | +$3 | 49% 290-305 (595) |
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$240
Value
$240
PnL
+$4.5
Record
53%
452-396 (848)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$175.17
Value
$166.41
PnL
-$13.14
Record
58%
42662-31048 (73710)
Invested
$149.19
Value
$157.36
PnL
+$8.17
Record
72%
6827-2619 (9446)
fyrskenCTR<$100Invested
$57
Value
$60
PnL
+$3
Record
49%
290-305 (595)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.