Spread: Texans (-8.5)

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Chargers (90%) · Chargers at 59¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 8

Texans41¢Chargers59¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chargers

Consensus Traders

Chargers 90%

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

$348.5

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 59¢

+10% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralChargers at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chargers

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Texans41%

Chargers59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chargers9 traders

Total Value$12.0K

Total Shares21,023

Combined PnL+$496.19

Texans1 trader

Total Value$880.15

Total Shares2,445

Combined PnL-$147.69

Chargers — 90%Texans — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Chargers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleChargers 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrChargers 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedChargers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Chargers 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Chargersavg 49¢	$6.4K	$6.9K	+$502.66	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
VeryLucky888	Chargersavg 63¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$19.84	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
BI biying88888	Chargersavg 58¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$23.99	47% 242-268 (510)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Texansavg 42¢	$1.0K	$880.15	-$147.69	50% 5215-5114 (10329)
NM NM-P	Chargersavg 63¢	$315	$317.5	+$2.5	58% 22563-16669 (39232)
GC GC-P	Chargersavg 63¢	$315	$317.5	+$2.5	57% 22242-16601 (38843)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Chargersavg 57¢	$285	$275	-$10	57% 17059-13037 (30096)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Chargersavg 65¢	$264	$217.29	-$46.71	50% 2215-2187 (4402)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Chargersavg 63¢	$12.6	$12.7	+$0.1	54% 5365-4576 (9941)
FE ferrariChampions2026<$100	Chargersavg 52¢	$3.25	$4.56	+$1.31	46% 33409-38908 (72317)

HomeRunHazard

Chargers

Invested

$6,388.89

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$502.66

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

VeryLucky888

Chargers

Invested

$2,499.95

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$19.84

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

biying88888

Chargers

Invested

$1,391.42

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$23.99

Record

47%

242-268 (510)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Texans

Invested

$1,027.84

Value

$880.15

PnL

-$147.69

Record

50%

5215-5114 (10329)

NM-P

Chargers

Invested

$315

Value

$317.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

58%

22563-16669 (39232)

GC-P

Chargers

Invested

$315

Value

$317.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

57%

22242-16601 (38843)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Chargers

Invested

$285

Value

$275

PnL

-$10

Record

57%

17059-13037 (30096)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Chargers

Invested

$264

Value

$217.29

PnL

-$46.71

Record

50%

2215-2187 (4402)

SunlineTicker<$100

Chargers

Invested

$12.6

Value

$12.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

5365-4576 (9941)

ferrariChampions2026<$100

Chargers

Invested

$3.25

Value

$4.56

PnL

+$1.31

Record

46%

33409-38908 (72317)

Research grade

NeutralChargers at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Chargers

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Chargers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleChargers 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrChargers 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedChargers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Chargers 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chargers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.