Spread: Texans (-7.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Texans (50%) · Texans at 99¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 8

Texans>99¢Chargers<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texans

Consensus Traders

Texans 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.5K

Combined PnL

$604.26

Smart Money Entry

55.6¢ → 99.2¢

+78% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexans at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texans

5 of 10 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Texans99%

Chargers1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texans5 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares8,877

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Chargers5 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares8,780

Combined PnL-$819.05

Texans — 50%Chargers — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Texansavg 49.8¢	$3.3K	$3.7K	+$482.24	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
BI biying88888CTR	Chargersavg 54¢	$2.4K	$1.8K	-$546.62	47% 242-270 (512)
38 38791873984189	Texansavg 73.6¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$594.55	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
PainfulvoidCTR	Chargersavg 48¢	$4.0K	$1.7K	-$262.6	53% 2026-1767 (3793)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Chargersavg 44¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$3.81	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
└ Chargers leg	Chargersavg 44¢	$880	$830	-$50
└ Texans leg	Texansavg 52¢	$430.49	$484.3	+$53.81
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Texansavg 62.6¢	$563.35	$883.27	+$319.93	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	Chargersavg 48¢	$2.1K	$874.58	-$88.96	46% 33417-38911 (72328)
└ Chargers leg	Chargersavg 48¢	$775.92	$670.85	-$105.07
└ Texans leg	Texansavg 53.9¢	$187.61	$203.73	+$16.11
HO HomeRunHazard	Texansavg 39.6¢	$99.9	$141.4	+$25.42	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Chargersavg 46.6¢	$127.74	$104.78	+$7.68	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
└ Chargers leg	Chargersavg 46.6¢	$80.08	$71.25	+$0.83
└ Texans leg	Texansavg 46.6¢	$26.69	$33.53	+$6.84
PA Pan9XCTR	Chargersavg 48.7¢	$177.44	$60.91	+$1.86	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Chargersavg 46¢	$121.65	$50.49	-$5.47	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
LI LimousinCTR	Chargersavg 47¢	$113.67	$47.17	-$6.23	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
QI qidao001<$100	Texansavg 52.8¢	$19.32	$20.49	+$1.18	84% 1390-257 (1647)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Texans

Invested

$3,252.71

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$482.24

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

biying88888CTR

Chargers

Invested

$2,361.42

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$546.62

Record

47%

242-270 (512)

38791873984189

Texans

Invested

$1,758.34

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$594.55

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

PainfulvoidCTR

Chargers

Invested

$4,039.99

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$262.6

Record

53%

2026-1767 (3793)

Anon455ARB<$100

Chargers

Invested

$1,310.49

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$3.81

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

Both legs:

Chargers$88044¢-$50

Texans$430.4952¢+$53.81

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Texans

Invested

$563.35

Value

$883.27

PnL

+$319.93

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

Chargers

Invested

$2,075.97

Value

$874.58

PnL

-$88.96

Record

46%

33417-38911 (72328)

Both legs:

Chargers$775.9248¢-$105.07

Texans$187.6153.9¢+$16.11

HomeRunHazard

Texans

Invested

$99.9

Value

$141.4

PnL

+$25.42

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Chargers

Invested

$127.74

Value

$104.78

PnL

+$7.68

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

Both legs:

Chargers$80.0846.6¢+$0.83

Texans$26.6946.6¢+$6.84

Pan9XCTR

Chargers

Invested

$177.44

Value

$60.91

PnL

+$1.86

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

MadridTimeCTR

Chargers

Invested

$121.65

Value

$50.49

PnL

-$5.47

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

LimousinCTR

Chargers

Invested

$113.67

Value

$47.17

PnL

-$6.23

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

qidao001<$100

Texans

Invested

$19.32

Value

$20.49

PnL

+$1.18

Record

84%

1390-257 (1647)

Research grade

NeutralTexans at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Texans

5 of 10 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.