Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Chargers, while the market favors Texans (99%). 9 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Texans (-6.5)

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Chargers (60%) · Chargers at 1.3¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 8

Texans99¢Chargers1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Chargers

Consensus Traders

Chargers 60%

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

44.6¢ → 1.3¢

-97% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidChargers at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chargers

9 of 15 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Texans 99%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Texans99%

Chargers1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chargers9 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares15,024

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Texans6 traders

Total Value$447.28

Total Shares716

Combined PnL+$78.69

Chargers — 60%Texans — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Chargers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleChargers 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpTexans 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrChargers 73% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Chargers 60% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Chargersavg 43.3¢	$7.2K	$2.7K	-$420	46% 33417-38911 (72328)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Chargersavg 45.7¢	$1.1K	$909.38	-$174.83	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
BI biying88888CTR	Chargersavg 47.9¢	$1.1K	$825.38	-$229.6	47% 242-270 (512)
CM cm2897CTR	Chargersavg 47¢	$1.0K	$807.5	-$204.56	50% 2578-2627 (5205)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Texansavg 52¢	$441.75	$276.09	+$46.38	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
MA MadridTime	Texansavg 48¢	$111.25	$69.53	+$16.13	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
LI LightParadox<$100	Texansavg 48¢	$55.63	$34.77	+$8.07	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Texansavg 58¢	$46.76	$29.22	+$2.1	50% 23496-23498 (46994)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Chargersavg 44¢	$66	$28	-$1.17	53% 13686-12064 (25750)
QI qidao001<$100	Texansavg 50.9¢	$41.75	$26.09	+$4.85	84% 1390-257 (1647)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Chargersavg 49.9¢	$77.15	$24.48	-$42.99	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Chargersavg 43.9¢	$24.5	$20.91	-$3.59	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
38 38791873984189CTR	Chargersavg 37.6¢	$408.85	$18.97	-$386.65	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Texansavg 47¢	$10.1	$11.57	+$1.16	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100	Chargersavg 48¢	$1	$0.78	-$0.22	45% 462-569 (1031)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Chargers

Invested

$7,223.64

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$420

Record

46%

33417-38911 (72328)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Chargers

Invested

$1,084.2

Value

$909.38

PnL

-$174.83

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

biying88888CTR

Chargers

Invested

$1,054.98

Value

$825.38

PnL

-$229.6

Record

47%

242-270 (512)

cm2897CTR

Chargers

Invested

$1,012.06

Value

$807.5

PnL

-$204.56

Record

50%

2578-2627 (5205)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Texans

Invested

$441.75

Value

$276.09

PnL

+$46.38

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

MadridTime

Texans

Invested

$111.25

Value

$69.53

PnL

+$16.13

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

LightParadox<$100

Texans

Invested

$55.63

Value

$34.77

PnL

+$8.07

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Texans

Invested

$46.76

Value

$29.22

PnL

+$2.1

Record

50%

23496-23498 (46994)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Chargers

Invested

$66

Value

$28

PnL

-$1.17

Record

53%

13686-12064 (25750)

qidao001<$100

Texans

Invested

$41.75

Value

$26.09

PnL

+$4.85

Record

84%

1390-257 (1647)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Chargers

Invested

$77.15

Value

$24.48

PnL

-$42.99

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

Anon455CTR<$100

Chargers

Invested

$24.5

Value

$20.91

PnL

-$3.59

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

38791873984189CTR

Chargers

Invested

$408.85

Value

$18.97

PnL

-$386.65

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Texans

Invested

$10.1

Value

$11.57

PnL

+$1.16

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100

Chargers

Invested

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$0.22

Record

45%

462-569 (1031)

Research grade

AvoidChargers at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Chargers

9 of 15 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Texans 99%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Chargers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleChargers 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpTexans 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrChargers 73% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Chargers 60% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chargers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.4%

1.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4137.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

4237.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.