Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (81%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Texans vs. Browns: O/U 50.5

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 19¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 15

Over19¢Under81¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 29%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

44¢ → 19¢

-57% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Under 81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over19%

Under81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,390

Combined PnL+$199.8

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares7,518

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 61¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	-$46.69	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
└ Under leg	Underavg 61¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$1.28
└ Over leg	Overavg 40.6¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$47.97
AN Anon455	Underavg 48¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$244.34	49% 497-511 (1008)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 44.8¢	$3.3K	$1.3K	$-2.0K	59% 1193-836 (2029)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 48.8¢	$513.71	$582.64	+$68.93	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.8¢	$294.21	$368.14	+$73.93
└ Over leg	Overavg 39.9¢	$219.5	$214.5	-$5
38 38791873984189	Underavg 76¢	$212.9	$140.48	-$42.94	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 23¢	$61.7	$85.84	+$24.14	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 50.7¢	$58.4	$70.23	+$11.82	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
NO NotJump	Underavg 55.1¢	$126.13	$29.55	-$13.63	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Underavg 58¢	$4.06	$4.27	+$0.21	58% 4041-2969 (7010)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,340.33

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$46.69

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

Both legs:

Under$2,146.7961¢+$1.28

Over$1,193.5340.6¢-$47.97

Anon455

Under

Invested

$1,095.67

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$244.34

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$3,250.05

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

59%

1193-836 (2029)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$513.71

Value

$582.64

PnL

+$68.93

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

Both legs:

Under$294.2148.8¢+$73.93

Over$219.539.9¢-$5

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$212.9

Value

$140.48

PnL

-$42.94

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$61.7

Value

$85.84

PnL

+$24.14

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$58.4

Value

$70.23

PnL

+$11.82

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

NotJump

Under

Invested

$126.13

Value

$29.55

PnL

-$13.63

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Under

Invested

$4.06

Value

$4.27

PnL

+$0.21

Record

58%

4041-2969 (7010)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Under 81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.8%

19.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$380.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

480.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.