Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Browns, while the market favors Texans (85%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Texans (-6.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Browns (64%) · Browns at 15¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 15

Texans85¢Browns15¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Browns

Consensus Traders

Browns 64%

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

-$674.37

Smart Money Entry

58.2¢ → 15¢

-74% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidBrowns at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Texans 85%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Texans85%

Browns15%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Browns7 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares11,805

Combined PnL-$684.26

Texans4 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares7,511

Combined PnL+$9.89

Browns — 64%Texans — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBrowns 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBrowns 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedBrowns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Browns 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Brownsavg 58¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$140	51% 3937-3725 (7662)
LU lug	Texansavg 42¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$210	65% 35-19 (54)
VeryLucky888CTR	Brownsavg 58¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$49.46	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
HO HomeRunHazard	Texansavg 39¢	$167.85	$367.97	+$200.13	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Brownsavg 58.5¢	$709.3	$175.91	-$533.39	48% 490-523 (1013)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Brownsavg 60.3¢	$483.46	$136.4	-$347.06	30% 495-1136 (1631)
SE sentrioCTR	Brownsavg 58¢	$119.02	$123.12	+$4.1	41% 1195-1702 (2897)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Brownsavg 58¢	$64.96	$67.2	+$2.24	56% 679-534 (1213)
PA Pan9X<$100	Texansavg 40¢	$18	$38.48	+$20.48	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
38 38791873984189<$100	Texansavg 41¢	$14.46	$13.76	-$0.71	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Brownsavg 11¢	$0.59	$0.97	+$0.38	39% 1595-2514 (4109)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Browns

Invested

$4,060

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$140

Record

51%

3937-3725 (7662)

lug

Texans

Invested

$2,940

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$210

Record

65%

35-19 (54)

VeryLucky888CTR

Browns

Invested

$1,430.39

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$49.46

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

HomeRunHazard

Texans

Invested

$167.85

Value

$367.97

PnL

+$200.13

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Browns

Invested

$709.3

Value

$175.91

PnL

-$533.39

Record

48%

490-523 (1013)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Browns

Invested

$483.46

Value

$136.4

PnL

-$347.06

Record

30%

495-1136 (1631)

sentrioCTR

Browns

Invested

$119.02

Value

$123.12

PnL

+$4.1

Record

41%

1195-1702 (2897)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$64.96

Value

$67.2

PnL

+$2.24

Record

56%

679-534 (1213)

Pan9X<$100

Texans

Invested

$18

Value

$38.48

PnL

+$20.48

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

38791873984189<$100

Texans

Invested

$14.46

Value

$13.76

PnL

-$0.71

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$0.59

Value

$0.97

PnL

+$0.38

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

Research grade

AvoidBrowns at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Texans 85%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBrowns 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBrowns 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedBrowns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Browns 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Browns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.7%

15.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$499.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

599.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.