Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Texans, while the market favors Browns (65%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Texans (-10.5)

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Texans (50%) · Texans at 36¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Texans36¢Browns64¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texans

Consensus Traders

Texans 50%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$18.34

Smart Money Entry

47.7¢ → 35.5¢

-26% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexans at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texans

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Browns 65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Texans36%

Browns65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texans6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,010

Combined PnL+$63.36

Browns6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,496

Combined PnL-$81.7

Texans — 50%Browns — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Texansavg 47.1¢	$959	$1.1K	+$100.76	51% 572-546 (1118)
AN Anon455	Brownsavg 53¢	$1.1K	$950.1	-$109.9	49% 486-502 (988)
RN1CTR	Texansavg 52¢	$108.33	$157.29	+$48.96	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
TA takeormakeCTR	Texansavg 50.9¢	$220.32	$129.9	-$90.42	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Brownsavg 52¢	$117	$118.13	+$1.13	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Texansavg 40.6¢	$96.34	$97.92	+$1.57	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Brownsavg 46¢	$49.68	$68.58	+$18.9	58% 4023-2943 (6966)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Texansavg 52.4¢	$59.82	$56.32	-$3.5	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
CM cm2897<$100	Brownsavg 46¢	$34.04	$46.99	+$12.95	49% 1237-1284 (2521)
BI biying88888<$100	Brownsavg 47¢	$17.86	$24.7	+$6.84	44% 244-314 (558)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Texansavg 52¢	$13.27	$19.27	+$6	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
LI Limousin<$100	Brownsavg 47.5¢	$24	$12.38	-$11.62	38% 1353-2203 (3556)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Texans

Invested

$959

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$100.76

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

Anon455

Browns

Invested

$1,060

Value

$950.1

PnL

-$109.9

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

RN1CTR

Texans

Invested

$108.33

Value

$157.29

PnL

+$48.96

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

takeormakeCTR

Texans

Invested

$220.32

Value

$129.9

PnL

-$90.42

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Browns

Invested

$117

Value

$118.13

PnL

+$1.13

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Texans

Invested

$96.34

Value

$97.92

PnL

+$1.57

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Browns

Invested

$49.68

Value

$68.58

PnL

+$18.9

Record

58%

4023-2943 (6966)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Texans

Invested

$59.82

Value

$56.32

PnL

-$3.5

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

cm2897<$100

Browns

Invested

$34.04

Value

$46.99

PnL

+$12.95

Record

49%

1237-1284 (2521)

biying88888<$100

Browns

Invested

$17.86

Value

$24.7

PnL

+$6.84

Record

44%

244-314 (558)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Texans

Invested

$13.27

Value

$19.27

PnL

+$6

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Limousin<$100

Browns

Invested

$24

Value

$12.38

PnL

-$11.62

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

Research grade

NeutralTexans at 36%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Texans

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Browns 65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.