Spread: Patriots (-5.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Packers (60%) · Packers at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8

Patriots1¢Packers99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Packers

Consensus Traders

Packers 60%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$777.83

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 98.6¢

+69% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Patriots1%

Packers99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Packers6 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares2,856

Combined PnL+$768.58

Patriots4 traders

Total Value$22.28

Total Shares290

Combined PnL+$9.24

Packers — 60%Patriots — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrPackers 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Packers 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Packersavg 57.8¢	$1.4K	$1.9K	+$562.55	54% 5366-4577 (9943)
38 38791873984189	Packersavg 61¢	$156.7	$391.76	+$117.89	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
nigiri99	Packersavg 58¢	$160.66	$253.46	+$92.8	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Packersavg 58¢	$26.1	$41.85	+$0.45	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
BA Bagwell306CTR<$100	Patriotsavg 39¢	$10.24	$21.76	+$11.52	48% 4750-5250 (10000)
PA Pan9X<$100	Packersavg 60.3¢	$34	$18.66	-$5.75	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Packersavg 83.4¢	$4.17	$4.82	+$0.65	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 7¢	$1.93	$0.3	-$1.63	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Patriotsavg 15¢	$0.75	$0.17	-$0.58	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
RN1CTR<$100	Patriotsavg 10.1¢	$0.11	$0.04	-$0.07	53% 70249-61821 (132070)

SunlineTicker

Packers

Invested

$1,383.87

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$562.55

Record

54%

5366-4577 (9943)

38791873984189

Packers

Invested

$156.7

Value

$391.76

PnL

+$117.89

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

nigiri99

Packers

Invested

$160.66

Value

$253.46

PnL

+$92.8

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Packers

Invested

$26.1

Value

$41.85

PnL

+$0.45

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

Bagwell306CTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$10.24

Value

$21.76

PnL

+$11.52

Record

48%

4750-5250 (10000)

Pan9X<$100

Packers

Invested

$34

Value

$18.66

PnL

-$5.75

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

6512395314597884<$100

Packers

Invested

$4.17

Value

$4.82

PnL

+$0.65

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

VenusianCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$1.93

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$1.63

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$0.58

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

RN1CTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.07

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrPackers 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Packers 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Packers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.