Spread: Patriots (-3.5)

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Packers (30%) · Packers at 53¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 8

Patriots48¢Packers52¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Packers

Consensus Traders

Packers 30%

Total Value

$20.7K

Combined PnL

$8.39

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 52.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Patriots48%

Packers53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Packers3 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares20,015

Combined PnL-$100.33

Patriots7 traders

Total Value$10.2K

Total Shares21,540

Combined PnL+$108.72

Packers — 30%Patriots — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-29 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Packers) and the top 1000 (7 on Patriots) disagree here.

whalePackers 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpPatriots 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrPatriots 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Patriots 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Packersavg 53¢	$7.3K	$10.5K	-$100	53% 668-585 (1253)
TKD44CTR	Patriotsavg 47.7¢	$7.6K	$7.6K	+$79.78	48% 169-182 (351)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Patriotsavg 47¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$11.86	48% 405-446 (851)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Patriotsavg 47¢	$999.99	$1.0K	+$10.64	55% 790-658 (1448)
NM NM-PCTR	Patriotsavg 46.9¢	$122.62	$239.57	+$2.74	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GC GC-PCTR	Patriotsavg 47¢	$235	$237.5	+$2.5	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Patriotsavg 46¢	$36.12	$37.3	+$1.18	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
HE Herdonia<$100	Packersavg 56¢	$6.16	$5.78	-$0.39	51% 3851-3766 (7617)
VeryLucky888<$100	Packersavg 52¢	$3.03	$3.08	+$0.05	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 47¢	$2.82	$2.85	+$0.03	54% 10485-8797 (19282)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Packers

Invested

$7,288.83

Value

$10.5K

PnL

-$100

Record

53%

668-585 (1253)

TKD44CTR

Patriots

Invested

$7,616.73

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$79.78

Record

48%

169-182 (351)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Patriots

Invested

$1,114.56

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$11.86

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

pltrkr111CTR

Patriots

Invested

$999.99

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10.64

Record

55%

790-658 (1448)

NM-PCTR

Patriots

Invested

$122.62

Value

$239.57

PnL

+$2.74

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GC-PCTR

Patriots

Invested

$235

Value

$237.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$36.12

Value

$37.3

PnL

+$1.18

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

Herdonia<$100

Packers

Invested

$6.16

Value

$5.78

PnL

-$0.39

Record

51%

3851-3766 (7617)

VeryLucky888<$100

Packers

Invested

$3.03

Value

$3.08

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$2.82

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0.03

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Packers

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-29 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Packers) and the top 1000 (7 on Patriots) disagree here.

whalePackers 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpPatriots 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrPatriots 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Patriots 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Packers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.