Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Patriots, while the market favors Packers (82%). 5 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Patriots (-2.5)

5 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Patriots (33%) · Patriots at 19¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 8

Patriots19¢Packers81¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Patriots

Consensus Traders

Patriots 33%

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 18.5¢

-67% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPatriots at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

5 of 15 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Packers 82%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Patriots19%

Packers82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Patriots5 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares7,285

Combined PnL+$25.55

Packers10 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares5,305

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Patriots — 33%Packers — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

96h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Patriots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrPackers 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Packers 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Patriotsavg 57¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$82.29	48% 520-559 (1079)
VeryLucky888	Packersavg 41.1¢	$1.1K	$1.9K	+$940.82	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
AU Aurelius7CTR	Patriotsavg 57.3¢	$800	$816.09	+$16.09	47% 293-334 (627)
LI LightParadox	Packersavg 40.5¢	$257.39	$463.93	+$206.55	47% 2124-2359 (4483)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Packersavg 75.3¢	$313.1	$339.04	+$25.94	50% 5215-5114 (10329)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Packersavg 44¢	$176	$322	+$146	50% 2215-2187 (4402)
HE Herdonia	Packersavg 43¢	$283.08	$273.32	-$9.76	50% 4154-4225 (8379)
SU SunlineTicker	Packersavg 42¢	$209.33	$206.84	-$2.49	54% 5365-4576 (9941)
38 38791873984189	Packersavg 45¢	$263.62	$195.07	+$84.13	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Patriotsavg 35.9¢	$119.12	$67.23	-$51.89	51% 5683-5537 (11220)
NM NM-P<$100	Packersavg 43¢	$22.04	$21.27	-$0.77	58% 22563-16669 (39232)
RN1<$100	Packersavg 67¢	$10.57	$12.85	+$2.29	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Patriotsavg 56¢	$29.68	$10.34	-$19.35	56% 8773-6961 (15734)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 23.6¢	$7.33	$5.74	-$1.59	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
GH ghorrock<$100	Packersavg 70¢	$4.2	$4.89	+$0.69	57% 24685-18276 (42961)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Patriots

Invested

$3,127

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$82.29

Record

48%

520-559 (1079)

VeryLucky888

Packers

Invested

$1,093.35

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$940.82

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

Aurelius7CTR

Patriots

Invested

$800

Value

$816.09

PnL

+$16.09

Record

47%

293-334 (627)

LightParadox

Packers

Invested

$257.39

Value

$463.93

PnL

+$206.55

Record

47%

2124-2359 (4483)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Packers

Invested

$313.1

Value

$339.04

PnL

+$25.94

Record

50%

5215-5114 (10329)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Packers

Invested

$176

Value

$322

PnL

+$146

Record

50%

2215-2187 (4402)

Herdonia

Packers

Invested

$283.08

Value

$273.32

PnL

-$9.76

Record

50%

4154-4225 (8379)

SunlineTicker

Packers

Invested

$209.33

Value

$206.84

PnL

-$2.49

Record

54%

5365-4576 (9941)

38791873984189

Packers

Invested

$263.62

Value

$195.07

PnL

+$84.13

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

6512395314597884CTR

Patriots

Invested

$119.12

Value

$67.23

PnL

-$51.89

Record

51%

5683-5537 (11220)

NM-P<$100

Packers

Invested

$22.04

Value

$21.27

PnL

-$0.77

Record

58%

22563-16669 (39232)

RN1<$100

Packers

Invested

$10.57

Value

$12.85

PnL

+$2.29

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$29.68

Value

$10.34

PnL

-$19.35

Record

56%

8773-6961 (15734)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$7.33

Value

$5.74

PnL

-$1.59

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

ghorrock<$100

Packers

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.89

PnL

+$0.69

Record

57%

24685-18276 (42961)

Research grade

AvoidPatriots at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

5 of 15 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Packers 82%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

96h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Patriots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrPackers 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Packers 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Patriots wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.3%

18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$392.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

493.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.