Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Patriots, while the market favors Packers (88%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Packers (-5.5)

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Patriots (100%) · Patriots at 12¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 8

Packers88¢Patriots12¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Patriots

Consensus Traders

Patriots 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Entry

43.5¢ → 12¢

-72% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidPatriots at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Packers 88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Packers88%

Patriots12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Patriots7 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares8,373

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Patriots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePatriots 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrPatriots 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Patriots 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Patriotsavg 42.9¢	$5.2K	$3.7K	$-1.4K	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
└ Packers leg	Packersavg 63.2¢	$1.7K	$2.2K	+$470.82
└ Patriots leg	Patriotsavg 42.9¢	$3.4K	$1.6K	$-1.9K
BI biying88888CTR	Patriotsavg 39¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$109.45	47% 242-270 (512)
AN Anon455CTR	Patriotsavg 50.9¢	$1.3K	$700.55	-$550.89	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Packersavg 57.4¢	$706.45	$690.96	-$15.49	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
└ Packers leg	Packersavg 57.4¢	$371.76	$521.64	+$149.88
└ Patriots leg	Patriotsavg 38.5¢	$334.69	$169.32	-$165.37
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Patriotsavg 55.2¢	$263.62	$164.77	-$98.85	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
38 38791873984189CTR	Patriotsavg 41¢	$372.09	$104.35	-$267.74	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 32.5¢	$53.22	$31.42	-$6.44	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Patriotsavg 30¢	$62.38	$22.77	+$4.05	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	Patriotsavg 45¢	$8.72	$3.27	-$0.65	46% 33417-38911 (72328)

RN1ARB<$100

Patriots

Invested

$5,154.89

Value

$3.7K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

Both legs:

Packers$1,716.7563.2¢+$470.82

Patriots$3,438.1542.9¢$-1.9K

biying88888CTR

Patriots

Invested

$1,707.42

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$109.45

Record

47%

242-270 (512)

Anon455CTR

Patriots

Invested

$1,251.44

Value

$700.55

PnL

-$550.89

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Packers

Invested

$706.45

Value

$690.96

PnL

-$15.49

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

Both legs:

Packers$371.7657.4¢+$149.88

Patriots$334.6938.5¢-$165.37

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Patriots

Invested

$263.62

Value

$164.77

PnL

-$98.85

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

38791873984189CTR

Patriots

Invested

$372.09

Value

$104.35

PnL

-$267.74

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$53.22

Value

$31.42

PnL

-$6.44

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$62.38

Value

$22.77

PnL

+$4.05

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$8.72

Value

$3.27

PnL

-$0.65

Record

46%

33417-38911 (72328)

Research grade

AvoidPatriots at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Packers 88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Patriots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePatriots 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrPatriots 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Patriots 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Patriots wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.6%

12.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$637.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

737.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.