Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Patriots, while the market favors Packers (98%). 14 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Packers (-3.5)

14 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Patriots (100%) · Patriots at 1.9¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 8

Packers98¢Patriots2¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Patriots

Consensus Traders

Patriots 100%

Total Value

$13.2K

Combined PnL

$-11.1K

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 1.9¢

-97% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidPatriots at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Packers 98%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Packers98%

Patriots2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Patriots14 traders

Total Value$13.2K

Total Shares43,580

Combined PnL$-11.1K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Patriots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePatriots 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrPatriots 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedPatriots 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Patriots 100% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Patriotsavg 50¢	$17.9K	$5.8K	$-3.1K	46% 33417-38911 (72328)
38 38791873984189CTR	Patriotsavg 73.1¢	$8.9K	$2.2K	$-2.8K	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Patriotsavg 49.8¢	$2.6K	$1.4K	$-1.2K	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
AN Anon455CTR	Patriotsavg 61¢	$2.4K	$1.0K	$-1.4K	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
BI biying88888CTR	Patriotsavg 55¢	$1.8K	$1.0K	-$774.09	47% 242-270 (512)
nigiri99CTR	Patriotsavg 73¢	$1.1K	$479.7	-$597.78	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Patriotsavg 47.4¢	$1.1K	$403.15	-$732.58	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Patriotsavg 48.5¢	$1.0K	$315	-$170	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
LI LimousinCTR	Patriotsavg 35¢	$753.83	$233.69	-$30.15	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
CM cm2897CTR	Patriotsavg 54¢	$162	$79.5	-$82.5	50% 2578-2627 (5205)
0xheavy888CTR	Patriotsavg 74.5¢	$166.88	$58.24	-$108.64	56% 8780-6967 (15747)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 72¢	$56.32	$57.09	+$0.77	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
PA Pan9XCTR	Patriotsavg 52.3¢	$129	$16.04	-$3.22	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 49¢	$18.25	$14.16	-$4.09	47% 2157-2403 (4560)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Patriots

Invested

$17,948.43

Value

$5.8K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

46%

33417-38911 (72328)

38791873984189CTR

Patriots

Invested

$8,865

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Patriots

Invested

$2,597.88

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

Anon455CTR

Patriots

Invested

$2,440

Value

$1.0K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

biying88888CTR

Patriots

Invested

$1,811.7

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$774.09

Record

47%

242-270 (512)

nigiri99CTR

Patriots

Invested

$1,077.48

Value

$479.7

PnL

-$597.78

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

6512395314597884CTR

Patriots

Invested

$1,135.72

Value

$403.15

PnL

-$732.58

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Patriots

Invested

$1,000

Value

$315

PnL

-$170

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

LimousinCTR

Patriots

Invested

$753.83

Value

$233.69

PnL

-$30.15

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

cm2897CTR

Patriots

Invested

$162

Value

$79.5

PnL

-$82.5

Record

50%

2578-2627 (5205)

0xheavy888CTR

Patriots

Invested

$166.88

Value

$58.24

PnL

-$108.64

Record

56%

8780-6967 (15747)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$56.32

Value

$57.09

PnL

+$0.77

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

Pan9XCTR

Patriots

Invested

$129

Value

$16.04

PnL

-$3.22

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$18.25

Value

$14.16

PnL

-$4.09

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

Research grade

AvoidPatriots at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Packers 98%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Patriots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePatriots 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrPatriots 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedPatriots 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Patriots 100% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Patriots wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.0%

1.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3188.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

3288.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.