Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Patriots, while the market favors Packers (94%). 11 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Packers (-10.5)

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Patriots (79%) · Patriots at 6.0¢ · $37K held · ended Nov 8

Packers94¢Patriots6¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Patriots

Consensus Traders

Patriots 79%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$36.8K

Combined PnL

$5.0K

Smart Money Entry

53.4¢ → 6¢

-89% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidPatriots at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Packers 94%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Packers94%

Patriots6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Packers3 traders

Total Value$16.3K

Total Shares16,927

Combined PnL+$4.5K

Patriots11 traders

Total Value$18.3K

Total Shares33,121

Combined PnL+$575.63

Packers — 21%Patriots — 79%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Patriots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePatriots 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrPatriots 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Patriots 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Packersavg 49¢	$8.9K	$11.8K	+$2.9K	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
ME metski29CTR	Patriotsavg 57.3¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	+$20.09	45% 374-453 (827)
ON Onomatopoeia777CTR	Patriotsavg 52¢	$5.2K	$5.8K	+$550	44% 80-102 (182)
TKD44CTR	Patriotsavg 51.4¢	$4.3K	$4.8K	+$510.81	49% 183-193 (376)
65 6512395314597884	Packersavg 50.8¢	$2.0K	$2.6K	+$566.79	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
AN Anon455	Packersavg 42.9¢	$959.2	$1.9K	+$977.07	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
CM cm2897ARB<$100	Patriotsavg 49.5¢	$8.9K	$1.9K	$-7.0K	50% 2578-2627 (5205)
└ Patriots leg	Patriotsavg 49.5¢	$8.4K	$1.1K	$-7.3K
└ Packers leg	Packersavg 62.1¢	$519.14	$782.04	+$262.9
BI biying88888CTR	Patriotsavg 49¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$218.79	47% 242-270 (512)
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	Packersavg 53¢	$68.57	$249.77	+$189.37	46% 33417-38911 (72328)
└ Patriots leg	Patriots	$130.1	$130.1	+$138.27
└ Packers leg	Packersavg 53¢	$68.57	$119.67	+$51.1
38 38791873984189CTR	Patriotsavg 57.5¢	$702.35	$95.31	-$605.14	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Patriotsavg 36¢	$199.1	$91.87	-$107.24	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
└ Packers leg	Packersavg 53¢	$32.78	$57.22	+$24.43
└ Patriots leg	Patriotsavg 36¢	$166.32	$34.65	-$131.67
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 49.9¢	$97.52	$55.47	+$9.33	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 46.3¢	$57.7	$30	+$3.3	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 38¢	$76	$15	-$61	53% 13686-12064 (25750)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 46.5¢	$53.4	$8.61	-$44.79	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 50¢	$9.5	$6.18	-$3.33	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 47¢	$26.7	$4.26	-$22.44	49% 2223-2352 (4575)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Packers

Invested

$8,906.41

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

metski29CTR

Patriots

Invested

$5,999.98

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$20.09

Record

45%

374-453 (827)

Onomatopoeia777CTR

Patriots

Invested

$5,200

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$550

Record

44%

80-102 (182)

TKD44CTR

Patriots

Invested

$4,296.9

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$510.81

Record

49%

183-193 (376)

6512395314597884

Packers

Invested

$1,995.97

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$566.79

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

Anon455

Packers

Invested

$959.2

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$977.07

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

cm2897ARB<$100

Patriots

Invested

$8,907.15

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-7.0K

Record

50%

2578-2627 (5205)

Both legs:

Patriots$8,388.0149.5¢$-7.3K

Packers$519.1462.1¢+$262.9

biying88888CTR

Patriots

Invested

$1,261.26

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$218.79

Record

47%

242-270 (512)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

Packers

Invested

$68.57

Value

$249.77

PnL

+$189.37

Record

46%

33417-38911 (72328)

Both legs:

Patriots$130.1—+$138.27

Packers$68.5753¢+$51.1

38791873984189CTR

Patriots

Invested

$702.35

Value

$95.31

PnL

-$605.14

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Patriots

Invested

$199.1

Value

$91.87

PnL

-$107.24

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

Both legs:

Packers$32.7853¢+$24.43

Patriots$166.3236¢-$131.67

Pan9XCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$97.52

Value

$55.47

PnL

+$9.33

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$57.7

Value

$30

PnL

+$3.3

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$76

Value

$15

PnL

-$61

Record

53%

13686-12064 (25750)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$53.4

Value

$8.61

PnL

-$44.79

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

VenusianCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$9.5

Value

$6.18

PnL

-$3.33

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

LimousinCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$26.7

Value

$4.26

PnL

-$22.44

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

Research grade

AvoidPatriots at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Packers 94%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Patriots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePatriots 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrPatriots 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Patriots 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Patriots wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.3%

6.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1265.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

1365.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.