Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 12 of 23 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Lions vs. Dolphins: O/U 50.5

12 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Over (52%) · Over at 45¢ · $113K held · ended Nov 8

Over45¢Under55¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 52%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$112.5K

Combined PnL

$147.29

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 44.5¢

-12% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

12 of 23 top traders (52%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over12 traders

Total Value$46.6K

Total Shares102,216

Combined PnL$-5.2K

Under11 traders

Total Value$47.3K

Total Shares85,092

Combined PnL+$5.3K

Over — 52%Under — 48%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrOver 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Overavg 51¢	$33.4K	$29.2K	$-4.3K	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
HI hi774c	Underavg 49¢	$18.2K	$20.6K	+$2.4K	46% 5609-6517 (12126)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Overavg 50¢	$20.0K	$9.9K	-$100	51% 1024-996 (2020)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$10.5K	$9.5K	-$41.04	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.1¢	$4.6K	$5.2K	+$587.91
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$4.9K	$4.3K	-$628.94
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 49.9¢	$7.3K	$8.1K	+$820.68	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
LI Limousin	Underavg 49¢	$6.3K	$7.1K	+$837.01	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 51.8¢	$5.3K	$5.1K	-$222.58	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.8¢	$3.3K	$2.8K	-$462.81
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.6¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$240.23
WA wan123CTR	Overavg 50¢	$4.8K	$4.3K	-$526.73	40% 217-325 (542)
betdge	Underavg 49.4¢	$3.4K	$3.8K	+$415.72	49% 1421-1470 (2891)
nigiri99	Underavg 49.5¢	$2.8K	$3.1K	+$337.81	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 49¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$327.6	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
BI biying88888ARB<$100	Overavg 52¢	$3.0K	$2.8K	-$217.14	48% 219-239 (458)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$2.3K	$2.0K	-$335.55
└ Under leg	Underavg 47¢	$654.71	$773.12	+$118.41
RN1CTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$79.85	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 49.7¢	$989.99	$1.1K	+$65	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.7¢	$745	$832.5	+$87.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$244.99	$222.49	-$22.5
NM NM-P	Underavg 49.5¢	$729.26	$812.5	+$83.23	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Overavg 51¢	$871.08	$760.06	-$111.02	48% 4748-5241 (9989)
0xheavy888	Underavg 49¢	$579.25	$655.46	+$76.21	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
BA bands1CTR	Overavg 49¢	$588.73	$618.76	+$30.04	49% 435-448 (883)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 52.7¢	$425.06	$358.67	-$66.39	51% 5614-5443 (11057)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 53¢	$265	$222.5	-$42.5	57% 17050-13014 (30064)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 50¢	$200	$222	+$22	51% 2075-2021 (4096)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$200	$200	+$0	56% 193-149 (342)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100	$101	+$5
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$99	-$5
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 55¢	$105.11	$85	-$20.11	52% 5499-5133 (10632)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$54.04	$54.59	+$0.55	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$51	$49.5	-$1.5	46% 941-1110 (2051)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Over

Invested

$33,445.29

Value

$29.2K

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$18,189.78

Value

$20.6K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

46%

5609-6517 (12126)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Over

Invested

$20,000

Value

$9.9K

PnL

-$100

Record

51%

1024-996 (2020)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$10,476.13

Value

$9.5K

PnL

-$41.04

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Both legs:

Under$4,590.0549.1¢+$587.91

Over$4,940.5351¢-$628.94

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$7,283.99

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$820.68

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$6,309.75

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$837.01

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$5,307.46

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$222.58

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

Both legs:

Over$3,302.9951.8¢-$462.81

Under$2,004.4749.6¢+$240.23

wan123CTR

Over

Invested

$4,788.5

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$526.73

Record

40%

217-325 (542)

betdge

Under

Invested

$3,385.48

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$415.72

Record

49%

1421-1470 (2891)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$2,768.53

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$337.81

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$2,469.6

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$327.6

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

biying88888ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,981.19

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$217.14

Record

48%

219-239 (458)

Both legs:

Over$2,326.4852¢-$335.55

Under$654.7147¢+$118.41

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,213.03

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$79.85

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$989.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$65

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Both legs:

Invested

$729.26

Value

$812.5

PnL

+$83.23

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Bagwell306CTR

Over

Invested

$871.08

Value

$760.06

PnL

-$111.02

Record

48%

4748-5241 (9989)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$579.25

Value

$655.46

PnL

+$76.21

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

bands1CTR

Over

Invested

$588.73

Value

$618.76

PnL

+$30.04

Record

49%

435-448 (883)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$425.06

Value

$358.67

PnL

-$66.39

Record

51%

5614-5443 (11057)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$265

Value

$222.5

PnL

-$42.5

Record

57%

17050-13014 (30064)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$200

Value

$222

PnL

+$22

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

193-149 (342)

Both legs:

Invested

$105.11

Value

$85

PnL

-$20.11

Record

52%

5499-5133 (10632)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54.04

Value

$54.59

PnL

+$0.55

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$51

Value

$49.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

46%

941-1110 (2051)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 45%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

12 of 23 top traders (52%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrOver 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.