Spread: Dolphins (-3.5)

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (67%) · Lions at 94¢ · $46K held · ended Nov 8

Dolphins7¢Lions93¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lions

Consensus Traders

Lions 67%

Total Value

$45.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

84.2¢ → 93.5¢

+11% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralLions at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Dolphins7%

Lions94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lions8 traders

Total Value$37.2K

Total Shares43,962

Combined PnL-$279.74

Dolphins4 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares55,236

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Lions — 67%Dolphins — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDolphins 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrLions 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedLions 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lions 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Lionsavg 84¢	$24.1K	$24.0K	-$141.81	50% 3038-2980 (6018)
VeryLucky888	Lionsavg 84.7¢	$12.8K	$12.7K	-$174.99	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Dolphinsavg 16.3¢	$3.8K	$4.4K	-$709.54	50% 585-578 (1163)
nigiri99CTR	Dolphinsavg 15.5¢	$4.9K	$4.1K	-$787.45	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Lionsavg 84¢	$344	$374.71	+$30.71	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Lionsavg 93¢	$69.75	$70.13	+$0.38	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
38 38791873984189<$100	Lionsavg 85.4¢	$42.7	$45.75	+$3.05	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 15¢	$37.5	$31.25	-$6.25	47% 8628-9767 (18395)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Lionsavg 81¢	$21.32	$24.08	+$2.76	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Lionsavg 85¢	$24.25	$23.83	-$0.42	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
PA Pan9X<$100	Lionsavg 71¢	$10.3	$10.88	+$0.58	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
dips.CTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 7¢	$5.25	$4.88	-$0.38	46% 12092-14003 (26095)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Lions

Invested

$24,108

Value

$24.0K

PnL

-$141.81

Record

50%

3038-2980 (6018)

VeryLucky888

Lions

Invested

$12,849.99

Value

$12.7K

PnL

-$174.99

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$3,797.89

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$709.54

Record

50%

585-578 (1163)

nigiri99CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$4,850.47

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$787.45

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Lions

Invested

$344

Value

$374.71

PnL

+$30.71

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Lions

Invested

$69.75

Value

$70.13

PnL

+$0.38

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

38791873984189<$100

Lions

Invested

$42.7

Value

$45.75

PnL

+$3.05

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$37.5

Value

$31.25

PnL

-$6.25

Record

47%

8628-9767 (18395)

6512395314597884<$100

Lions

Invested

$21.32

Value

$24.08

PnL

+$2.76

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Lions

Invested

$24.25

Value

$23.83

PnL

-$0.42

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Pan9X<$100

Lions

Invested

$10.3

Value

$10.88

PnL

+$0.58

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

dips.CTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$5.25

Value

$4.88

PnL

-$0.38

Record

46%

12092-14003 (26095)

Research grade

NeutralLions at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDolphins 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrLions 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedLions 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lions 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.