Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Dolphins, while the market favors Lions (54%). 9 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Lions (-9.5)

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Dolphins (69%) · Dolphins at 46¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 8

Lions54¢Dolphins46¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dolphins

Consensus Traders

Dolphins 69%

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

-$5.95

Smart Money Entry

57.6¢ → 46¢

-20% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralDolphins at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Lions 54%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lions54%

Dolphins46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lions4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares5,664

Combined PnL-$375.63

Dolphins9 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares5,951

Combined PnL+$369.68

Lions — 31%Dolphins — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDolphins 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrDolphins 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedDolphins 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Dolphins 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Lionsavg 42.5¢	$5.5K	$2.0K	-$353.56	46% 1426-1652 (3078)
RN1CTR	Dolphinsavg 57¢	$2.4K	$1.6K	+$171.26	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
AN Anon455CTR	Dolphinsavg 58¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$120	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Dolphinsavg 57.5¢	$558.61	$354.72	+$33.77	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Dolphinsavg 57¢	$295.26	$339.29	+$44.03	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Dolphinsavg 60¢	$147.87	$148.16	+$0.29	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 60¢	$93.87	$94.62	+$0.75	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
LI Limousin	Lionsavg 44.9¢	$119.06	$41.08	-$12.39	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
VE Venusian<$100	Lionsavg 46.3¢	$57.72	$20.49	-$6.24	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 56.4¢	$73	$18.34	+$1.1	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 72¢	$20	$12.9	-$1.5	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
LI LightParadox<$100	Lionsavg 44¢	$36.16	$12.47	-$3.44	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Dolphinsavg 58¢	$1.0K	$1	-$0.01	57% 17052-13027 (30079)

primm

Lions

Invested

$5,451

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$353.56

Record

46%

1426-1652 (3078)

RN1CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$2,449.58

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$171.26

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Anon455CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$1,160

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$120

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

6512395314597884CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$558.61

Value

$354.72

PnL

+$33.77

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$295.26

Value

$339.29

PnL

+$44.03

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Dolphins

Invested

$147.87

Value

$148.16

PnL

+$0.29

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$93.87

Value

$94.62

PnL

+$0.75

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

Limousin

Lions

Invested

$119.06

Value

$41.08

PnL

-$12.39

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

Venusian<$100

Lions

Invested

$57.72

Value

$20.49

PnL

-$6.24

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$73

Value

$18.34

PnL

+$1.1

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$20

Value

$12.9

PnL

-$1.5

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

LightParadox<$100

Lions

Invested

$36.16

Value

$12.47

PnL

-$3.44

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$1,000

Value

PnL

-$0.01

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

Research grade

NeutralDolphins at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Lions 54%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDolphins 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrDolphins 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedDolphins 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Dolphins 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dolphins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.