Spread: Lions (-5.5)

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (44%) · Lions at 70¢ · $39K held · ended Nov 8

Lions70¢Dolphins30¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lions

Consensus Traders

Lions 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.2K

Combined PnL

$123.09

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 69.5¢

+29% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralLions at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

7 of 16 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lions70%

Dolphins31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lions7 traders

Total Value$18.5K

Total Shares29,375

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Dolphins9 traders

Total Value$12.0K

Total Shares30,497

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Lions — 44%Dolphins — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLions 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrLions 69% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedLions 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Lions 56% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GM gmpm2	Lionsavg 52.3¢	$9.2K	$12.0K	+$2.8K	54% 385-331 (716)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Dolphinsavg 49.3¢	$9.8K	$7.6K	$-2.3K	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Lionsavg 52.5¢	$4.3K	$4.5K	+$251.04	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 52.5¢	$2.5K	$3.3K	+$873.13
└ Dolphins leg	Dolphinsavg 44.5¢	$1.8K	$1.2K	-$622.09
RN1ARB<$100	Lionsavg 49.4¢	$3.7K	$4.1K	+$447.79	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 49.4¢	$2.3K	$3.2K	+$891.72
└ Dolphins leg	Dolphinsavg 46.9¢	$1.4K	$908.06	-$443.93
PR primm	Lionsavg 57.4¢	$6.1K	$3.2K	-$315.63	46% 1426-1652 (3078)
BI biying88888CTR	Dolphinsavg 42.9¢	$2.8K	$3.1K	+$299.07	48% 233-252 (485)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Lionsavg 55¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$137.02	47% 564-647 (1211)
65 6512395314597884	Lionsavg 56.4¢	$654	$794.6	+$140.6	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
38 38791873984189CTR	Dolphinsavg 45¢	$1.4K	$726.33	-$296.98	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Dolphinsavg 44¢	$604.78	$308.44	+$42.33	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Dolphinsavg 44.5¢	$445	$290	-$155	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
PA Pan9X	Lionsavg 51.3¢	$106.32	$94.69	+$29.04	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
TA takeormake	Lionsavg 65¢	$123	$63.96	-$15.99	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard<$100	Lionsavg 54¢	$34.62	$33.34	-$1.28	53% 680-594 (1274)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 43.7¢	$29.96	$31.13	+$1.17	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 48¢	$55.69	$27.57	+$0.84	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 48¢	$55.69	$27.57	+$0.84	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 44¢	$3.57	$1.71	+$0.14	54% 19973-16852 (36825)

gmpm2

Lions

Invested

$9,196.23

Value

$12.0K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

54%

385-331 (716)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$9,816.5

Value

$7.6K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

Anon455ARB<$100

Lions

Invested

$4,263.13

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$251.04

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

Both legs:

Lions$2,475.5352.5¢+$873.13

Dolphins$1,787.5944.5¢-$622.09

RN1ARB<$100

Lions

Invested

$3,659.28

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$447.79

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Both legs:

Lions$2,307.2949.4¢+$891.72

Dolphins$1,351.9946.9¢-$443.93

primm

Lions

Invested

$6,127

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$315.63

Record

46%

1426-1652 (3078)

biying88888CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$2,774.18

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$299.07

Record

48%

233-252 (485)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Lions

Invested

$2,512.12

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$137.02

Record

47%

564-647 (1211)

6512395314597884

Lions

Invested

$654

Value

$794.6

PnL

+$140.6

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

38791873984189CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$1,368

Value

$726.33

PnL

-$296.98

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$604.78

Value

$308.44

PnL

+$42.33

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$445

Value

$290

PnL

-$155

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

Pan9X

Lions

Invested

$106.32

Value

$94.69

PnL

+$29.04

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

takeormake

Lions

Invested

$123

Value

$63.96

PnL

-$15.99

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

monkeymashingkeyboard<$100

Lions

Invested

$34.62

Value

$33.34

PnL

-$1.28

Record

53%

680-594 (1274)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$29.96

Value

$31.13

PnL

+$1.17

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$55.69

Value

$27.57

PnL

+$0.84

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

LimousinCTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$55.69

Value

$27.57

PnL

+$0.84

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$3.57

Value

$1.71

PnL

+$0.14

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Research grade

NeutralLions at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

7 of 16 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLions 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrLions 69% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedLions 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Lions 56% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.