Spread: Lions (-3.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (44%) · Lions at 66¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 8

Lions66¢Dolphins34¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lions

Consensus Traders

Lions 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.6K

Combined PnL

-$107.59

Smart Money Entry

57.3¢ → 65.5¢

+14% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralLions at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lions66%

Dolphins35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lions4 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares16,485

Combined PnL+$875.37

Dolphins5 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares12,179

Combined PnL-$982.96

Lions — 44%Dolphins — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Lionsavg 54.3¢	$3.9K	$4.8K	+$843.54	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Lionsavg 61¢	$4.9K	$4.7K	-$119.63	47% 564-647 (1211)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Lionsavg 47.2¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$381.11	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 47.2¢	$959.07	$1.3K	+$331.11
└ Dolphins leg	Dolphinsavg 34¢	$680	$730	+$50
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Dolphinsavg 47.8¢	$2.7K	$1.7K	-$996.19	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
38 38791873984189CTR	Dolphinsavg 39¢	$2.1K	$1.4K	+$56.56	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
PR primmCTR	Dolphinsavg 42¢	$2.9K	$1.2K	-$43.18	46% 1426-1652 (3078)
65 6512395314597884	Lionsavg 51¢	$612	$762	+$150	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
PA Pan9X<$100	Lionsavg 56.5¢	$75.41	$45.95	+$1.46	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 42.6¢	$62.67	$26.95	+$0.22	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 52¢	$1.08	$0.72	-$0.36	57% 17052-13027 (30079)

RN1

Lions

Invested

$3,933.53

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$843.54

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Lions

Invested

$4,865.41

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$119.63

Record

47%

564-647 (1211)

Anon455ARB<$100

Lions

Invested

$1,639.06

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$381.11

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

Both legs:

Lions$959.0747.2¢+$331.11

Dolphins$68034¢+$50

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$2,730.89

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$996.19

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

38791873984189CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$2,098.61

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$56.56

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

primmCTR

Dolphins

Invested

$2,879

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$43.18

Record

46%

1426-1652 (3078)

6512395314597884

Lions

Invested

$612

Value

$762

PnL

+$150

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Pan9X<$100

Lions

Invested

$75.41

Value

$45.95

PnL

+$1.46

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

VenusianCTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$62.67

Value

$26.95

PnL

+$0.22

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$1.08

Value

$0.72

PnL

-$0.36

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

Research grade

NeutralLions at 66%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.