Spread: Lions (-10.5)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Dolphins (36%) · Dolphins at 59¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 8

Lions42¢Dolphins58¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dolphins

Consensus Traders

Dolphins 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

-$36.54

Smart Money Entry

59.8¢ → 58.5¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDolphins at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lions42%

Dolphins59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dolphins4 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares6,513

Combined PnL-$83.92

Lions7 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares8,220

Combined PnL+$47.37

Dolphins — 36%Lions — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI biying88888	Dolphinsavg 60.4¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$72.12	48% 233-252 (485)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Lionsavg 40.6¢	$2.6K	$1.9K	+$9.63	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
PR primmARB<$100	Dolphinsavg 58.7¢	$3.3K	$1.8K	+$83.84	46% 1426-1652 (3078)
└ Dolphins leg	Dolphinsavg 58.7¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$188.76
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 39¢	$545.47	$440.69	-$104.92
FE ferrariChampions2026	Dolphinsavg 59¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$13	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
RN1CTR	Lionsavg 40.1¢	$775.94	$802.54	+$26.61	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
38 38791873984189CTR	Lionsavg 42.4¢	$349.5	$342.37	-$7.12	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Lionsavg 40¢	$238.8	$246.75	+$7.94	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Lionsavg 39¢	$156	$166	+$10	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Lionsavg 40.9¢	$52.88	$42.86	+$0.64	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Lionsavg 42¢	$26.69	$26.37	-$0.32	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
AN Anon455<$100	Dolphinsavg 60¢	$17.17	$19.09	+$1.92	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Dolphinsavg 76¢	$8	$5.36	-$0.72	53% 13661-12046 (25707)

biying88888

Dolphins

Invested

$2,341.92

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$72.12

Record

48%

233-252 (485)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Lions

Invested

$2,639.42

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$9.63

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

primmARB<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$3,319

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$83.84

Record

46%

1426-1652 (3078)

Both legs:

Dolphins$1,126.2758.7¢+$188.76

Lions$545.4739¢-$104.92

ferrariChampions2026

Dolphins

Invested

$1,533.41

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$13

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

RN1CTR

Lions

Invested

$775.94

Value

$802.54

PnL

+$26.61

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

38791873984189CTR

Lions

Invested

$349.5

Value

$342.37

PnL

-$7.12

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Lions

Invested

$238.8

Value

$246.75

PnL

+$7.94

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

6512395314597884CTR

Lions

Invested

$156

Value

$166

PnL

+$10

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Lions

Invested

$52.88

Value

$42.86

PnL

+$0.64

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Lions

Invested

$26.69

Value

$26.37

PnL

-$0.32

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

Anon455<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$17.17

Value

$19.09

PnL

+$1.92

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

justaluckydude<$100

Dolphins

Invested

Value

$5.36

PnL

-$0.72

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

Research grade

NeutralDolphins at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dolphins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.