Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Broncos, while the market favors Panthers (60%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Broncos (-5.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Broncos (64%) · Broncos at 40¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

Broncos40¢Panthers60¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Broncos

Consensus Traders

Broncos 64%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$239.79

Smart Money Entry

46.6¢ → 40¢

-14% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralBroncos at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Broncos

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Panthers 60%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Broncos40%

Panthers60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Broncos7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,641

Combined PnL-$118.05

Panthers4 traders

Total Value$927.24

Total Shares1,774

Combined PnL-$121.74

Broncos — 64%Panthers — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Broncosavg 48¢	$844.01	$743.35	-$100.66	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
AN Anon455	Panthersavg 68¢	$655.97	$523.96	-$132	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Broncosavg 38¢	$455.4	$479.29	+$23.89	54% 5360-4574 (9934)
38 38791873984189	Panthersavg 62¢	$212.08	$208.63	-$3.45	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
VE Venusian	Panthersavg 73.5¢	$147.04	$153.9	+$6.87	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Broncosavg 66¢	$108.07	$114.61	+$6.55	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Panthersavg 49.2¢	$33.9	$40.75	+$6.85	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Broncosavg 50.3¢	$29.55	$25.02	-$4.53	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Broncosavg 51.3¢	$29.96	$16.88	-$6.52	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Broncosavg 48¢	$35.62	$6.68	-$28.94	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	Broncosavg 47¢	$13.41	$5.56	-$7.85	46% 33351-38883 (72234)

RN1CTR

Broncos

Invested

$844.01

Value

$743.35

PnL

-$100.66

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Anon455

Panthers

Invested

$655.97

Value

$523.96

PnL

-$132

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

SunlineTickerCTR

Broncos

Invested

$455.4

Value

$479.29

PnL

+$23.89

Record

54%

5360-4574 (9934)

38791873984189

Panthers

Invested

$212.08

Value

$208.63

PnL

-$3.45

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Venusian

Panthers

Invested

$147.04

Value

$153.9

PnL

+$6.87

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Broncos

Invested

$108.07

Value

$114.61

PnL

+$6.55

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

6512395314597884<$100

Panthers

Invested

$33.9

Value

$40.75

PnL

+$6.85

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$29.55

Value

$25.02

PnL

-$4.53

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$29.96

Value

$16.88

PnL

-$6.52

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$35.62

Value

$6.68

PnL

-$28.94

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$13.41

Value

$5.56

PnL

-$7.85

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

Research grade

NeutralBroncos at 40%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Broncos

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Panthers 60%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Broncos wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.