Spread: Broncos (-4.5)

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Panthers (40%) · Panthers at 73¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 8

Broncos27¢Panthers73¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Panthers

Consensus Traders

Panthers 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

-$30.08

Smart Money Entry

57.4¢ → 73¢

+27% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

6 of 15 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Broncos27%

Panthers73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Broncos9 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares5,903

Combined PnL-$92.4

Panthers6 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares5,749

Combined PnL+$62.33

Broncos — 60%Panthers — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Broncosavg 51.3¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$417.16	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
AN Anon455	Panthersavg 93¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	-$438.8	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
RN1	Panthersavg 37¢	$903.91	$1.3K	+$403.1	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Broncosavg 64¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$381.92	51% 6914-6557 (13471)
65 6512395314597884	Panthersavg 46.8¢	$564	$692	+$128	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
BI biying88888ARB<$100	Broncosavg 50¢	$578.9	$347.39	-$231.51	48% 233-252 (485)
└ Broncos leg	Broncosavg 50¢	$507.9	$238.76	-$269.14
└ Panthers leg	Panthersavg 50¢	$71	$108.63	+$37.63
VeryLucky888CTR	Broncosavg 41¢	$309.7	$310.59	+$0.9	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
38 38791873984189	Panthersavg 50.2¢	$201.03	$288	+$86.97	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Broncosavg 53¢	$265	$135	-$130	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
nigiri99	Panthersavg 58.7¢	$238.99	$122.1	-$116.89	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Broncosavg 40.9¢	$99.83	$99.86	+$0.03	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Panthersavg 48.5¢	$145.04	$92	+$8.6	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
└ Panthers leg	Panthersavg 48.5¢	$59.6	$65.81	+$8.83
└ Broncos leg	Broncosavg 51.5¢	$29	$26.2	-$0.23
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Broncosavg 46¢	$19	$13.3	+$4.56	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Broncosavg 61¢	$18	$12.42	+$1.44	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
CM cm2897CTR<$100	Broncosavg 50¢	$10	$5.4	-$4.6	50% 2563-2606 (5169)
LI Limousin<$100	Panthersavg 48¢	$4.54	$4.49	-$0.05	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Broncosavg 39¢	$1.11	$1.13	+$0.02	54% 19973-16852 (36825)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Broncos

Invested

$1,179.95

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$417.16

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

Anon455

Panthers

Invested

$1,827.57

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$438.8

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

RN1

Panthers

Invested

$903.91

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$403.1

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Broncos

Invested

$1,576.96

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$381.92

Record

51%

6914-6557 (13471)

6512395314597884

Panthers

Invested

$564

Value

$692

PnL

+$128

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

biying88888ARB<$100

Broncos

Invested

$578.9

Value

$347.39

PnL

-$231.51

Record

48%

233-252 (485)

Both legs:

Broncos$507.950¢-$269.14

Panthers$7150¢+$37.63

VeryLucky888CTR

Broncos

Invested

$309.7

Value

$310.59

PnL

+$0.9

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

38791873984189

Panthers

Invested

$201.03

Value

$288

PnL

+$86.97

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Broncos

Invested

$265

Value

$135

PnL

-$130

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

nigiri99

Panthers

Invested

$238.99

Value

$122.1

PnL

-$116.89

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

VenusianCTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$99.83

Value

$99.86

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

Pan9XARB<$100

Panthers

Invested

$145.04

Value

$92

PnL

+$8.6

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Both legs:

Panthers$59.648.5¢+$8.83

Broncos$2951.5¢-$0.23

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$19

Value

$13.3

PnL

+$4.56

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$18

Value

$12.42

PnL

+$1.44

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

cm2897CTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$10

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$4.6

Record

50%

2563-2606 (5169)

Limousin<$100

Panthers

Invested

$4.54

Value

$4.49

PnL

-$0.05

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$1.11

Value

$1.13

PnL

+$0.02

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

6 of 15 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Panthers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.