Spread: Broncos (-2.5)

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Broncos (57%) · Broncos at 53¢ · $65K held · ends Nov 8

Broncos53¢Panthers47¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Broncos

Consensus Traders

Broncos 57%

Total Value

$64.6K

Combined PnL

$145.05

Smart Money Entry

52.5¢ → 52.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralBroncos at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Broncos

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Broncos53%

Panthers48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Broncos8 traders

Total Value$40.2K

Total Shares77,282

Combined PnL+$587.59

Panthers6 traders

Total Value$24.4K

Total Shares51,518

Combined PnL-$442.54

Broncos — 57%Panthers — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

86h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Broncos. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Panthers) and the top 1000 (13 on Broncos) disagree here.

whaleBroncos 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpBroncos 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBroncos 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedPanthers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Broncos 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Broncosavg 52.7¢	$30.0K	$29.5K	+$284.1	48% 405-446 (851)
GM gmpm2CTR	Panthersavg 48¢	$14.4K	$14.2K	-$150	53% 372-326 (698)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Broncosavg 51.7¢	$10.3K	$10.4K	+$299.17	53% 667-585 (1252)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Panthersavg 49¢	$9.8K	$9.4K	-$300	51% 994-944 (1938)
38 38791873984189CTR	Panthersavg 47.5¢	$771.66	$518.43	+$6.77	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
HI hi774c	Broncosavg 51¢	$191.71	$195.47	+$5.64	46% 5316-6151 (11467)
ST stackingsatsCTR	Panthersavg 47¢	$167.93	$167.93	+$1.79	48% 358-393 (751)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Panthersavg 48¢	$107.52	$105.28	-$1.12	54% 18479-15550 (34029)
nigiri99<$100	Broncosavg 55¢	$40.15	$37.96	-$1.82	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
HE Herdonia<$100	Broncosavg 51.2¢	$30.69	$31.11	+$0.72	51% 3847-3765 (7612)
PA Pan9X<$100	Broncosavg 51¢	$8.91	$8.91	-$0.14	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
NM NM-P<$100	Broncosavg 52¢	$5.42	$5.42	+$0.05	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100	Broncosavg 55.7¢	$2.96	$2.76	-$0.13	47% 533-610 (1143)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Panthersavg 47¢	$2.13	$2.13	+$0.02	58% 47503-34297 (81800)

Multicoloured-Serf

Broncos

Invested

$29,965.94

Value

$29.5K

PnL

+$284.1

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

gmpm2CTR

Panthers

Invested

$14,399.99

Value

$14.2K

PnL

-$150

Record

53%

372-326 (698)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Broncos

Invested

$10,319.31

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$299.17

Record

53%

667-585 (1252)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Panthers

Invested

$9,800

Value

$9.4K

PnL

-$300

Record

51%

994-944 (1938)

38791873984189CTR

Panthers

Invested

$771.66

Value

$518.43

PnL

+$6.77

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

hi774c

Broncos

Invested

$191.71

Value

$195.47

PnL

+$5.64

Record

46%

5316-6151 (11467)

stackingsatsCTR

Panthers

Invested

$167.93

Value

$167.93

PnL

+$1.79

Record

48%

358-393 (751)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Panthers

Invested

$107.52

Value

$105.28

PnL

-$1.12

Record

54%

18479-15550 (34029)

nigiri99<$100

Broncos

Invested

$40.15

Value

$37.96

PnL

-$1.82

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

Herdonia<$100

Broncos

Invested

$30.69

Value

$31.11

PnL

+$0.72

Record

51%

3847-3765 (7612)

Pan9X<$100

Broncos

Invested

$8.91

Value

$8.91

PnL

-$0.14

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

NM-P<$100

Broncos

Invested

$5.42

Value

$5.42

PnL

+$0.05

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100

Broncos

Invested

$2.96

Value

$2.76

PnL

-$0.13

Record

47%

533-610 (1143)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$2.13

Value

$2.13

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

Research grade

NeutralBroncos at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Broncos

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

86h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Broncos. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Panthers) and the top 1000 (13 on Broncos) disagree here.

whaleBroncos 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpBroncos 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBroncos 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedPanthers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Broncos 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Broncos wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.