Spread: Broncos (-13.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Panthers (50%) · Panthers at 80¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8

Broncos20¢Panthers80¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Panthers

Consensus Traders

Panthers 50%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$72.35

Smart Money Entry

72.3¢ → 79.5¢

+10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Broncos20%

Panthers80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Panthers5 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares4,588

Combined PnL+$409.58

Broncos5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares4,571

Combined PnL-$481.93

Panthers — 50%Broncos — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePanthers 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrPanthers 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedPanthers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Panthers 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Panthersavg 59¢	$1.4K	$2.0K	+$543.82	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
38 38791873984189	Panthersavg 81.6¢	$1.3K	$834.2	+$38.19	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Panthersavg 94¢	$911.33	$770.18	-$141.15	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Broncosavg 41¢	$1.0K	$469.76	-$541.67	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
VE VenusianCTR	Broncosavg 18¢	$416.15	$421.22	+$5.08	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Broncosavg 18.7¢	$251.85	$247.66	-$4.19	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
dips.CTR<$100	Broncosavg 6.1¢	$28.67	$96.82	+$68.15	46% 12092-14003 (26095)
AN Anon455<$100	Panthersavg 82¢	$98.99	$67.6	-$31.39	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
PA Pan9X<$100	Panthersavg 82¢	$24.75	$24.71	+$0.1	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Broncosavg 34¢	$20.4	$11.1	-$9.3	51% 5657-5508 (11165)

RN1

Panthers

Invested

$1,426.03

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$543.82

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

38791873984189

Panthers

Invested

$1,266.01

Value

$834.2

PnL

+$38.19

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Panthers

Invested

$911.33

Value

$770.18

PnL

-$141.15

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Broncos

Invested

$1,011.42

Value

$469.76

PnL

-$541.67

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

VenusianCTR

Broncos

Invested

$416.15

Value

$421.22

PnL

+$5.08

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

MadridTimeCTR

Broncos

Invested

$251.85

Value

$247.66

PnL

-$4.19

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

dips.CTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$28.67

Value

$96.82

PnL

+$68.15

Record

46%

12092-14003 (26095)

Anon455<$100

Panthers

Invested

$98.99

Value

$67.6

PnL

-$31.39

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

Pan9X<$100

Panthers

Invested

$24.75

Value

$24.71

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$20.4

Value

$11.1

PnL

-$9.3

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePanthers 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrPanthers 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedPanthers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Panthers 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Panthers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.