Cowboys vs. Colts: O/U 54.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 70¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8

Over30¢Under70¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$33.05

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 70¢

+38% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over30%

Under70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,686

Combined PnL+$20.95

Over3 traders

Total Value$52.91

Total Shares111

Combined PnL+$12.1

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 42.7¢	$2.4K	$1.9K	-$511.47	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.7¢	$1.5K	$1.0K	-$443.11
└ Under leg	Underavg 75.4¢	$954.5	$886.14	-$68.36
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Underavg 49¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$63.99	47% 564-647 (1211)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 42.2¢	$798.18	$645.8	-$152.38	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.2¢	$581.98	$413.4	-$168.58
└ Under leg	Underavg 65.1¢	$216.2	$232.4	+$16.2
alpheclabs2ARB<$100	Underavg 85¢	$652.95	$616.33	-$36.62	47% 1624-1831 (3455)
└ Under leg	Underavg 85¢	$468.63	$385.93	-$82.7
└ Over leg	Overavg 24¢	$184.32	$230.4	+$46.08
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 56.8¢	$540.5	$491.45	-$49.05	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 48.6¢	$164.88	$84.91	+$4.73	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
CM cm2897CTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$34.56	$46.56	+$12	50% 2563-2606 (5169)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 49¢	$54.55	$28.09	+$1.36	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$10	$4.85	-$0.15	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 59¢	$2.65	$2.58	-$0.08	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$1.25	$1.5	+$0.25	53% 13661-12046 (25707)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,444.75

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$511.47

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Both legs:

Over$1,490.2542.7¢-$443.11

Under$954.575.4¢-$68.36

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Under

Invested

$1,254.12

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$63.99

Record

47%

564-647 (1211)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$798.18

Value

$645.8

PnL

-$152.38

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Both legs:

Over$581.9842.2¢-$168.58

Under$216.265.1¢+$16.2

alpheclabs2ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$652.95

Value

$616.33

PnL

-$36.62

Record

47%

1624-1831 (3455)

Both legs:

Under$468.6385¢-$82.7

Over$184.3224¢+$46.08

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$540.5

Value

$491.45

PnL

-$49.05

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$164.88

Value

$84.91

PnL

+$4.73

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

cm2897CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$34.56

Value

$46.56

PnL

+$12

Record

50%

2563-2606 (5169)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$54.55

Value

$28.09

PnL

+$1.36

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$4.85

PnL

-$0.15

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.58

PnL

-$0.08

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.