Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (60%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Cowboys vs. Colts: O/U 52.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (64%) · Over at 40¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 8

Over40¢Under60¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 64%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

-$43.26

Smart Money Entry

41.4¢ → 40¢

-3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Under 60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares5,236

Combined PnL-$27.39

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,477

Combined PnL-$15.87

Over — 64%Under — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 41.9¢	$5.2K	$5.1K	-$117.34	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
└ Over leg	Overavg 41.9¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	-$30
└ Under leg	Underavg 61.5¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$87.33
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 42.1¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$17.62	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
AN Anon455	Underavg 57.8¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$11.28	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 45.3¢	$816.75	$740.14	-$76.61	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.3¢	$545.5	$488.03	-$57.47
└ Under leg	Underavg 64¢	$271.25	$252.11	-$19.14
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 47.1¢	$433.06	$371.37	-$61.69	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
alpheclabs2CTR	Overavg 29¢	$111.36	$159.36	+$48	47% 1624-1831 (3455)
nigiri99	Underavg 53¢	$171.72	$144.18	-$27.54	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 29.8¢	$62.49	$65.93	+$3.44	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 40.7¢	$14.64	$14.94	+$0.3	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
FE ferrariChampions2026<$100	Underavg 43¢	$25	$11.13	+$0.38	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$2.8	$2.78	-$0.03	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$0.46	$0.66	+$0.2	56% 10311-8123 (18434)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 52¢	$0.59	$0.61	+$0.02	52% 27203-24713 (51916)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$5,169.78

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$117.34

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Both legs:

Over$3,380.1841.9¢-$30

Under$1,789.661.5¢-$87.33

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$1,624.47

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$17.62

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$1,239.9

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$11.28

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$816.75

Value

$740.14

PnL

-$76.61

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Both legs:

Over$545.545.3¢-$57.47

Under$271.2564¢-$19.14

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$433.06

Value

$371.37

PnL

-$61.69

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

alpheclabs2CTR

Over

Invested

$111.36

Value

$159.36

PnL

+$48

Record

47%

1624-1831 (3455)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$171.72

Value

$144.18

PnL

-$27.54

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$62.49

Value

$65.93

PnL

+$3.44

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.64

Value

$14.94

PnL

+$0.3

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

ferrariChampions2026<$100

Under

Invested

$25

Value

$11.13

PnL

+$0.38

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.78

PnL

-$0.03

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.66

PnL

+$0.2

Record

56%

10311-8123 (18434)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$0.59

Value

$0.61

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 40%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Under 60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.