Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Colts, while the market favors Cowboys (53%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Cowboys (-9.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (70%) · Colts at 48¢ · $73K held · ended Nov 8

Cowboys53¢Colts47¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Colts

Consensus Traders

Colts 70%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$72.6K

Combined PnL

$533.84

Smart Money Entry

61.6¢ → 47.5¢

-23% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralColts at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Cowboys 53%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys53%

Colts48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colts7 traders

Total Value$43.8K

Total Shares67,924

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Cowboys3 traders

Total Value$20.8K

Total Shares60,057

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Colts — 70%Cowboys — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCowboys 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrColts 60% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Coltsavg 67¢	$29.4K	$31.8K	+$2.4K	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
TA takeormake	Cowboysavg 33¢	$41.6K	$11.0K	$-2.7K	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
ST stackingsatsCTR	Coltsavg 49.5¢	$9.9K	$9.5K	-$401.06	47% 364-404 (768)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Cowboysavg 41.2¢	$3.9K	$5.0K	+$1.1K	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
RN1ARB<$100	Coltsavg 56¢	$5.5K	$4.9K	-$654.94	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
└ Colts leg	Coltsavg 56¢	$4.2K	$3.6K	-$680.13
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 52¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$25.19
FE ferrariChampions2026	Cowboysavg 51¢	$4.6K	$4.8K	+$180.98	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Cowboysavg 49.3¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$105.24	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 49.3¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$85.24
└ Colts leg	Coltsavg 46¢	$920	$940	+$20
unknowngamblerCTR	Coltsavg 65¢	$969.8	$1.1K	+$111.9	57% 442-333 (775)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR	Coltsavg 74.6¢	$792.17	$504.58	-$287.59	54% 1452-1257 (2709)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Coltsavg 65¢	$390	$435	+$45	54% 591-501 (1092)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Cowboysavg 49¢	$462	$426.5	+$25.75	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 49¢	$220.5	$238.5	+$18
└ Colts leg	Coltsavg 46¢	$184	$188	+$7.75
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Coltsavg 47.6¢	$425.84	$423.45	-$2.39	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
└ Colts leg	Coltsavg 47.6¢	$287.7	$281.32	-$6.37
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 52¢	$138.14	$142.13	+$3.98
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Coltsavg 50¢	$232.25	$290	+$57.75	56% 195-151 (346)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Coltsavg 48¢	$261.5	$258.88	-$2.63	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Coltsavg 50.1¢	$82.52	$75.18	+$2.22	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 44.6¢	$34.82	$41.34	+$4.48
└ Colts leg	Coltsavg 50.1¢	$36.1	$33.84	-$2.26

nigiri99CTR

Colts

Invested

$29,350.14

Value

$31.8K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

takeormake

Cowboys

Invested

$41,604.97

Value

$11.0K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

stackingsatsCTR

Colts

Invested

$9,901.06

Value

$9.5K

PnL

-$401.06

Record

47%

364-404 (768)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Cowboys

Invested

$3,872.88

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

RN1ARB<$100

Colts

Invested

$5,541.8

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$654.94

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Both legs:

Colts$4,231.9256¢-$680.13

Cowboys$1,309.8852¢+$25.19

ferrariChampions2026

Cowboys

Invested

$4,614.99

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$180.98

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

Anon455ARB<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$2,058.15

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$105.24

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

Both legs:

Cowboys$1,138.1549.3¢+$85.24

Colts$92046¢+$20

unknowngamblerCTR

Colts

Invested

$969.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$111.9

Record

57%

442-333 (775)

TAIWANNUMBERONECTR

Colts

Invested

$792.17

Value

$504.58

PnL

-$287.59

Record

54%

1452-1257 (2709)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Colts

Invested

$390

Value

$435

PnL

+$45

Record

54%

591-501 (1092)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$462

Value

$426.5

PnL

+$25.75

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Both legs:

Cowboys$220.549¢+$18

Colts$18446¢+$7.75

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Colts

Invested

$425.84

Value

$423.45

PnL

-$2.39

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Both legs:

Colts$287.747.6¢-$6.37

Cowboys$138.1452¢+$3.98

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Colts

Invested

$232.25

Value

$290

PnL

+$57.75

Record

56%

195-151 (346)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Colts

Invested

$261.5

Value

$258.88

PnL

-$2.63

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

Pan9XARB<$100

Colts

Invested

$82.52

Value

$75.18

PnL

+$2.22

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Both legs:

Cowboys$34.8244.6¢+$4.48

Colts$36.150.1¢-$2.26

Research grade

NeutralColts at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Cowboys 53%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCowboys 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrColts 60% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.