Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Colts, while the market favors Cowboys (84%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (67%) · Colts at 17¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

Cowboys84¢Colts16¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Colts

Consensus Traders

Colts 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$240.21

Smart Money Entry

42.1¢ → 16.5¢

-61% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidColts at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Cowboys 84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys84%

Colts17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cowboys4 traders

Total Value$979.36

Total Shares1,128

Combined PnL+$205.36

Colts8 traders

Total Value$948.21

Total Shares3,297

Combined PnL-$445.57

Cowboys — 33%Colts — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColts 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrColts 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be	Cowboysavg 64¢	$531.69	$697.84	+$166.15	49% 410-432 (842)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Coltsavg 48¢	$972.02	$422.83	-$43.86	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Coltsavg 38¢	$423.29	$317.28	+$25.23	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
└ Colts leg	Coltsavg 38¢	$150.12	$171.89	+$5.93
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 49¢	$126.06	$145.39	+$19.3
65 6512395314597884	Cowboysavg 51.8¢	$228.58	$265.5	+$36.92	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
AN Anon455CTR	Coltsavg 35.6¢	$313.99	$141.15	-$172.84	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
BI biying88888CTR	Coltsavg 49¢	$140.82	$125.01	-$15.81	48% 233-252 (485)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Coltsavg 41.2¢	$301.43	$117.04	-$184.39	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
PR primmCTR	Coltsavg 38¢	$145.41	$63.25	+$8	46% 1426-1652 (3078)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Coltsavg 48¢	$98	$42.63	-$4.46	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Coltsavg 35¢	$66.11	$33.68	-$32.43	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cowboysavg 51¢	$18	$10.17	+$0.99	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Cowboysavg 65¢	$4.55	$5.85	+$1.3	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Coltsavg 36¢	$2.4	$2.61	+$0.21	54% 19973-16852 (36825)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be

Cowboys

Invested

$531.69

Value

$697.84

PnL

+$166.15

Record

49%

410-432 (842)

justaluckydudeCTR

Colts

Invested

$972.02

Value

$422.83

PnL

-$43.86

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

VenusianARB<$100

Colts

Invested

$423.29

Value

$317.28

PnL

+$25.23

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

Both legs:

Colts$150.1238¢+$5.93

Cowboys$126.0649¢+$19.3

6512395314597884

Cowboys

Invested

$228.58

Value

$265.5

PnL

+$36.92

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Anon455CTR

Colts

Invested

$313.99

Value

$141.15

PnL

-$172.84

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

biying88888CTR

Colts

Invested

$140.82

Value

$125.01

PnL

-$15.81

Record

48%

233-252 (485)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Colts

Invested

$301.43

Value

$117.04

PnL

-$184.39

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

primmCTR

Colts

Invested

$145.41

Value

$63.25

PnL

+$8

Record

46%

1426-1652 (3078)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$98

Value

$42.63

PnL

-$4.46

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$66.11

Value

$33.68

PnL

-$32.43

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Pan9X<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$18

Value

$10.17

PnL

+$0.99

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$4.55

Value

$5.85

PnL

+$1.3

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.61

PnL

+$0.21

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Research grade

AvoidColts at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Cowboys 84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColts 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrColts 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.2%

16.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$448.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

548.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.