Browns vs. Saints: O/U 44.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 97¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8

Over3¢Under97¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$197.18

Smart Money Entry

57.3¢ → 97¢

+69% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over3%

Under97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares4,518

Combined PnL+$685.56

Over3 traders

Total Value$823.49

Total Shares3,108

Combined PnL-$488.38

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Underavg 54¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$390	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Overavg 46¢	$2.5K	$663.82	-$488.47	48% 4749-5247 (9996)
RN1	Underavg 58¢	$901.67	$662.73	+$139.76	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 57¢	$435.96	$433.02	-$2.95	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
DR Dreamwire	Underavg 54¢	$269.99	$372.49	+$102.5	80% 4364-1079 (5443)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 94¢	$208.89	$214	+$5.11	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 43¢	$153.18	$156.12	+$2.95	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
OD Oddstorm	Underavg 57¢	$86.22	$112.7	+$26.47	48% 8324-8883 (17207)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 58¢	$146.78	$83.55	+$11.88	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 50¢	$43.24	$31.78	+$10.16	50% 23449-23463 (46912)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 56¢	$15	$11.03	+$2.63	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$6.4	$3.55	-$2.85	56% 8753-6943 (15696)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$1,080

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$390

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

Bagwell306CTR

Over

Invested

$2,504.99

Value

$663.82

PnL

-$488.47

Record

48%

4749-5247 (9996)

RN1

Under

Invested

$901.67

Value

$662.73

PnL

+$139.76

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$435.96

Value

$433.02

PnL

-$2.95

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Dreamwire

Under

Invested

$269.99

Value

$372.49

PnL

+$102.5

Record

80%

4364-1079 (5443)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$208.89

Value

$214

PnL

+$5.11

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$153.18

Value

$156.12

PnL

+$2.95

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

Oddstorm

Under

Invested

$86.22

Value

$112.7

PnL

+$26.47

Record

48%

8324-8883 (17207)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$146.78

Value

$83.55

PnL

+$11.88

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$43.24

Value

$31.78

PnL

+$10.16

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$15

Value

$11.03

PnL

+$2.63

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.4

Value

$3.55

PnL

-$2.85

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.