Spread: Saints (-9.5)

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Browns (67%) · Browns at 76¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 8

Saints25¢Browns75¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Browns

Consensus Traders

Browns 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.5K

Combined PnL

-$46.41

Smart Money Entry

70.3¢ → 75.5¢

+7% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Saints25%

Browns76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Browns8 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares10,480

Combined PnL+$433.69

Saints4 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares9,053

Combined PnL-$480.1

Browns — 67%Saints — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBrowns 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBrowns 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedBrowns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Browns 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Brownsavg 67¢	$3.1K	$3.5K	+$394.41	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Saintsavg 29.7¢	$2.6K	$2.2K	-$452.27	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
38 38791873984189	Brownsavg 69.1¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	+$106.73	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
65 6512395314597884	Brownsavg 71.1¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$67.2	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
AN Anon455	Brownsavg 80.3¢	$742.6	$698	-$44.6	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Brownsavg 81¢	$405	$377.5	-$27.5	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
OD Oddstorm	Brownsavg 72.5¢	$330.33	$289.19	-$41.14	48% 8324-8883 (17207)
BA Bayupati	Brownsavg 73.1¢	$285.83	$248.18	-$37.65	49% 281-298 (579)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Saintsavg 50¢	$198	$198	+$0	56% 195-151 (346)
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 50¢	$100	$112	+$35
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 50¢	$100	$86	-$35
PA Pan9X	Brownsavg 66.8¢	$133.1	$127.33	+$16.24	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
PR primmCTR<$100	Saintsavg 33¢	$66	$49	-$17	46% 1426-1652 (3078)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Saintsavg 43¢	$19.97	$11.38	-$8.59	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
BI biying88888CTR<$100	Saintsavg 31.5¢	$8.82	$6.58	-$2.24	48% 233-252 (485)

RN1

Browns

Invested

$3,088.95

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$394.41

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Saints

Invested

$2,602.98

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$452.27

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

38791873984189

Browns

Invested

$1,885.65

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$106.73

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

6512395314597884

Browns

Invested

$1,144.95

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$67.2

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Anon455

Browns

Invested

$742.6

Value

$698

PnL

-$44.6

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Browns

Invested

$405

Value

$377.5

PnL

-$27.5

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

Oddstorm

Browns

Invested

$330.33

Value

$289.19

PnL

-$41.14

Record

48%

8324-8883 (17207)

Bayupati

Browns

Invested

$285.83

Value

$248.18

PnL

-$37.65

Record

49%

281-298 (579)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Saints

Invested

$198

Value

$198

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

195-151 (346)

Both legs:

Invested

$133.1

Value

$127.33

PnL

+$16.24

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

primmCTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$66

Value

$49

PnL

-$17

Record

46%

1426-1652 (3078)

VenusianCTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$19.97

Value

$11.38

PnL

-$8.59

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

biying88888CTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$8.82

Value

$6.58

PnL

-$2.24

Record

48%

233-252 (485)

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBrowns 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBrowns 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedBrowns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Browns 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Browns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.