Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Saints, while the market favors Browns (67%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Browns (-3.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Saints (56%) · Saints at 33¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8

Browns67¢Saints33¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Saints

Consensus Traders

Saints 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.5K

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 33¢

-50% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralSaints at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Saints

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Browns 67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Browns67%

Saints33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Saints5 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares9,135

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Browns4 traders

Total Value$328.07

Total Shares1,887

Combined PnL-$102.99

Saints — 56%Browns — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Saints. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSaints 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrSaints 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Saints 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Saintsavg 75.1¢	$5.6K	$2.4K	$-2.5K	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
RN1CTR	Saintsavg 39.8¢	$905.66	$990.9	+$85.23	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Saintsavg 73¢	$684.25	$705.37	+$21.12	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Saintsavg 82¢	$414.05	$431.78	+$17.72	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Brownsavg 20.8¢	$387.99	$352.38	-$35.61	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 81.9¢	$179.99	$182.38	+$2.39
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 20.8¢	$208	$170	-$38
38 38791873984189	Brownsavg 25.5¢	$315.23	$193.95	-$43.28	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
JU justaluckydude	Brownsavg 18¢	$138.57	$96.09	-$42.48	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Saintsavg 77.7¢	$91.97	$89.12	-$2.85	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 77.7¢	$60.02	$64.13	+$4.11
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 21.7¢	$31.95	$24.99	-$6.96
nigiri99<$100	Brownsavg 27¢	$52.11	$35.71	-$16.4	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Saintsavg 75¢	$3.9	$4.26	+$0.36	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
GH ghorrock<$100	Brownsavg 21¢	$3.15	$2.33	-$0.82	57% 24661-18268 (42929)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Saints

Invested

$5,636.03

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

RN1CTR

Saints

Invested

$905.66

Value

$990.9

PnL

+$85.23

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Saints

Invested

$684.25

Value

$705.37

PnL

+$21.12

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Saints

Invested

$414.05

Value

$431.78

PnL

+$17.72

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Browns

Invested

$387.99

Value

$352.38

PnL

-$35.61

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Both legs:

Saints$179.9981.9¢+$2.39

Browns$20820.8¢-$38

38791873984189

Browns

Invested

$315.23

Value

$193.95

PnL

-$43.28

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

justaluckydude

Browns

Invested

$138.57

Value

$96.09

PnL

-$42.48

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

Pan9XARB<$100

Saints

Invested

$91.97

Value

$89.12

PnL

-$2.85

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Both legs:

Saints$60.0277.7¢+$4.11

Browns$31.9521.7¢-$6.96

nigiri99<$100

Browns

Invested

$52.11

Value

$35.71

PnL

-$16.4

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

Anon455CTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$3.9

Value

$4.26

PnL

+$0.36

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

ghorrock<$100

Browns

Invested

$3.15

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.82

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

Research grade

NeutralSaints at 33%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Saints

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Browns 67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Saints. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSaints 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrSaints 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Saints 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Saints wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.1%

33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$184.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

284.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.