Bengals vs. Falcons: O/U 54.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (78%) · Over at 76¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8

Over76¢Under24¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 78%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$575.78

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 75.5¢

+48% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over76%

Under25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares4,362

Combined PnL+$682.31

Under2 traders

Total Value$423.04

Total Shares1,071

Combined PnL-$106.53

Over — 78%Under — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 44.7¢	$822.75	$1.1K	+$289.84	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 53.8¢	$549.8	$754.7	+$204.9	50% 4741-4676 (9417)
RN1	Overavg 58¢	$429.2	$555	+$125.8	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
DR DreamwireCTR	Underavg 49¢	$490	$395	-$95	79% 3530-933 (4463)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 57¢	$310.01	$361.68	+$51.67	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Overavg 50¢	$200	$200	+$0	— 1-0 (1)
CM cm2897<$100	Overavg 54¢	$21.6	$30	+$8.4	51% 2230-2185 (4415)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Underavg 55.7¢	$39.58	$28.05	-$11.53	60% 4654-3069 (7723)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 42¢	$15.85	$17.55	+$1.7	58% 47904-34520 (82424)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$822.75

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$289.84

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$549.8

Value

$754.7

PnL

+$204.9

Record

50%

4741-4676 (9417)

RN1

Over

Invested

$429.2

Value

$555

PnL

+$125.8

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

DreamwireCTR

Under

Invested

$490

Value

$395

PnL

-$95

Record

79%

3530-933 (4463)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$310.01

Value

$361.68

PnL

+$51.67

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-0 (1)

cm2897<$100

Over

Invested

$21.6

Value

$30

PnL

+$8.4

Record

51%

2230-2185 (4415)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$39.58

Value

$28.05

PnL

-$11.53

Record

60%

4654-3069 (7723)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$15.85

Value

$17.55

PnL

+$1.7

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.