Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Falcons, while the market favors Bengals (98%). 8 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Bengals (-9.5)

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Falcons (53%) · Falcons at 2.5¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 8

Bengals98¢Falcons2¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Falcons

Consensus Traders

Falcons 53%

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

$299.31

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 2.5¢

-95% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidFalcons at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Bengals 98%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bengals98%

Falcons3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bengals7 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares8,528

Combined PnL+$3.3K

Falcons8 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares10,679

Combined PnL$-3.0K

Bengals — 47%Falcons — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Bengalsavg 46.3¢	$1.7K	$3.3K	+$1.7K	50% 5167-5068 (10235)
RN1	Bengalsavg 51.2¢	$1.4K	$2.5K	+$1.0K	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
JU justaluckydude	Bengalsavg 62.4¢	$831.62	$1.2K	+$381.42	53% 13621-12019 (25640)
AN Anon455CTR	Falconsavg 63¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$130	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
38 38791873984189	Bengalsavg 49.2¢	$632.88	$729.55	+$103.95	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Falconsavg 46¢	$1.2K	$679.14	-$519.29	51% 5614-5443 (11057)
PR primmCTR	Falconsavg 45.8¢	$2.7K	$448.08	$-2.3K	47% 1426-1612 (3038)
dips.	Bengalsavg 91.8¢	$293.7	$312	+$18.3	46% 12026-13917 (25943)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Falconsavg 53.1¢	$359.77	$203.27	+$12.04	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Falconsavg 71¢	$48.22	$48.65	+$0.43	53% 14307-12631 (26938)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Falconsavg 27.5¢	$54.12	$36	-$18.12	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Bengalsavg 26¢	$19.55	$32.71	+$13.16	48% 8319-8875 (17194)
CM cm2897<$100	Bengalsavg 91¢	$27.3	$29.25	+$1.95	50% 2562-2599 (5161)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Falconsavg 50¢	$20	$10.7	+$0.7	53% 3670-3275 (6945)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Falconsavg 8.3¢	$29	$8.75	-$20.25	47% 8606-9734 (18340)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Bengals

Invested

$1,733.61

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

50%

5167-5068 (10235)

RN1

Bengals

Invested

$1,412.48

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

justaluckydude

Bengals

Invested

$831.62

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$381.42

Record

53%

13621-12019 (25640)

Anon455CTR

Falcons

Invested

$1,260

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$130

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

38791873984189

Bengals

Invested

$632.88

Value

$729.55

PnL

+$103.95

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

6512395314597884CTR

Falcons

Invested

$1,198.42

Value

$679.14

PnL

-$519.29

Record

51%

5614-5443 (11057)

primmCTR

Falcons

Invested

$2,734.08

Value

$448.08

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

47%

1426-1612 (3038)

dips.

Bengals

Invested

$293.7

Value

$312

PnL

+$18.3

Record

46%

12026-13917 (25943)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Falcons

Invested

$359.77

Value

$203.27

PnL

+$12.04

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$48.22

Value

$48.65

PnL

+$0.43

Record

53%

14307-12631 (26938)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$54.12

Value

$36

PnL

-$18.12

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

Oddstorm<$100

Bengals

Invested

$19.55

Value

$32.71

PnL

+$13.16

Record

48%

8319-8875 (17194)

cm2897<$100

Bengals

Invested

$27.3

Value

$29.25

PnL

+$1.95

Record

50%

2562-2599 (5161)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$20

Value

$10.7

PnL

+$0.7

Record

53%

3670-3275 (6945)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$29

Value

$8.75

PnL

-$20.25

Record

47%

8606-9734 (18340)

Research grade

AvoidFalcons at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Bengals 98%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Falcons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.7%

2.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2625.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

2725.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.