Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bengals, while the market favors Falcons (55%). 10 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Bengals (-4.5)

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Bengals (63%) · Bengals at 46¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 8

Bengals46¢Falcons54¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bengals

Consensus Traders

Bengals 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.3K

Combined PnL

-$276.74

Smart Money Entry

41.2¢ → 45.5¢

+10% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralBengals at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bengals

10 of 16 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Falcons 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bengals46%

Falcons55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Falcons6 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares9,413

Combined PnL-$428.98

Bengals10 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares15,580

Combined PnL+$152.24

Falcons — 38%Bengals — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME metski29	Falconsavg 60.6¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$115.42	45% 352-433 (785)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Bengalsavg 44¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$50	57% 4284-3214 (7498)
PR primm	Falconsavg 66¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$291.7	47% 1317-1506 (2823)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Bengalsavg 40¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$131.4	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Bengalsavg 40¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$48.36	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
└ Bengals leg	Bengalsavg 40¢	$800	$890	+$90
└ Falcons leg	Falconsavg 61.2¢	$450.22	$408.57	-$41.64
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Bengalsavg 34.1¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$292.24	50% 4741-4676 (9417)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Bengalsavg 43.7¢	$722.07	$726.44	+$4.37	60% 4654-3069 (7723)
LI LimousinCTR	Bengalsavg 44¢	$602.34	$458.58	-$143.77	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
VE VenusianCTR	Bengalsavg 44¢	$489.84	$384.05	-$105.79	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
HO HomeRunHazard	Falconsavg 56¢	$245.31	$245.47	+$0.17	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
RN1	Falconsavg 64¢	$255.98	$235.09	-$20.89	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Bengalsavg 41¢	$205	$222.5	+$17.5	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
38 38791873984189	Falconsavg 56¢	$140	$140	+$0	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100	Bengalsavg 36¢	$28.28	$34.56	+$6.28	46% 454-543 (997)
PA Pan9X<$100	Falconsavg 63.5¢	$27.31	$21.98	-$1.14	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Bengalsavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.23	+$0.02	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Bengalsavg 40¢	$2	$1.98	-$0.02	51% 5014-4884 (9898)

metski29

Falcons

Invested

$3,289.09

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$115.42

Record

45%

352-433 (785)

Bagwell306CTR

Bengals

Invested

$2,200

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$50

Record

57%

4284-3214 (7498)

primm

Falcons

Invested

$1,925.22

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$291.7

Record

47%

1317-1506 (2823)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Bengals

Invested

$1,168.03

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$131.4

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

Anon455ARB<$100

Bengals

Invested

$1,250.22

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$48.36

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

Both legs:

Bengals$80040¢+$90

Falcons$450.2261.2¢-$41.64

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Bengals

Invested

$1,000.48

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$292.24

Record

50%

4741-4676 (9417)

SunlineTickerCTR

Bengals

Invested

$722.07

Value

$726.44

PnL

+$4.37

Record

60%

4654-3069 (7723)

LimousinCTR

Bengals

Invested

$602.34

Value

$458.58

PnL

-$143.77

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

VenusianCTR

Bengals

Invested

$489.84

Value

$384.05

PnL

-$105.79

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

HomeRunHazard

Falcons

Invested

$245.31

Value

$245.47

PnL

+$0.17

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

RN1

Falcons

Invested

$255.98

Value

$235.09

PnL

-$20.89

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Bengals

Invested

$205

Value

$222.5

PnL

+$17.5

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

38791873984189

Falcons

Invested

$140

Value

$140

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100

Bengals

Invested

$28.28

Value

$34.56

PnL

+$6.28

Record

46%

454-543 (997)

Pan9X<$100

Falcons

Invested

$27.31

Value

$21.98

PnL

-$1.14

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Bengals

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.02

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Bengals

Invested

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$0.02

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

Research grade

NeutralBengals at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Bengals

10 of 16 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Falcons 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bengals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.