Spread: Bengals (-2.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Bengals (25%) · Bengals at 57¢ · $33K held · ends Nov 8

Bengals57¢Falcons43¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bengals

Consensus Traders

Bengals 25%

Total Value

$32.5K

Combined PnL

-$2.59

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 57.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralBengals at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bengals

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bengals57%

Falcons43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bengals2 traders

Total Value$18.4K

Total Shares32,070

Combined PnL+$163.05

Falcons6 traders

Total Value$14.1K

Total Shares33,179

Combined PnL-$165.64

Bengals — 25%Falcons — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Bengalsavg 57¢	$18.1K	$18.3K	+$159	48% 405-446 (851)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Falconsavg 43¢	$13.7K	$13.5K	-$159.37	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
NM NM-PCTR	Falconsavg 42¢	$210	$212.5	+$2.5	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
38 38791873984189CTR	Falconsavg 43.4¢	$209.06	$204.66	-$4.4	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
HO HomeRunHazard	Bengalsavg 55.7¢	$150.57	$155.31	+$4.05	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Falconsavg 45¢	$121.55	$114.8	-$4.05	51% 3851-3766 (7617)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Falconsavg 44¢	$20.55	$20.31	-$0.24	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Falconsavg 44¢	$2.64	$2.55	-$0.09	54% 10485-8797 (19282)

Multicoloured-Serf

Bengals

Invested

$18,125.92

Value

$18.3K

PnL

+$159

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Falcons

Invested

$13,705.53

Value

$13.5K

PnL

-$159.37

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

NM-PCTR

Falcons

Invested

$210

Value

$212.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

38791873984189CTR

Falcons

Invested

$209.06

Value

$204.66

PnL

-$4.4

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

HomeRunHazard

Bengals

Invested

$150.57

Value

$155.31

PnL

+$4.05

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

HerdoniaCTR

Falcons

Invested

$121.55

Value

$114.8

PnL

-$4.05

Record

51%

3851-3766 (7617)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$20.55

Value

$20.31

PnL

-$0.24

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$2.64

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0.09

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Research grade

NeutralBengals at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bengals

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bengals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.