Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Panthers vs. Saints: O/U 48.5
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 50¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 44%
$4.3K
-$5.26
49¢ → 49.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-6 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Mature
28h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BA bands1CTR | Underavg 49¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$21.66 | 51% 360-345 (705) |
JA JAMJAMJAM4 | Overavg 51¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$38.6 | 5% 29-529 (558) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 50¢ | $271.52 | $133.12 | +$1.23 | 48% 3953-4307 (8260) |
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $61.06 | $62.96 | +$1.91 | 48% 720-766 (1486) |
HI hi774c<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $30.6 | $30 | -$0.6 | 26% 249-694 (943) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $27.59 | $27.31 | -$0.28 | 67% 49-24 (73) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $8.8 | $8.63 | -$0.17 | 56% 3922-3103 (7025) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $2.94 | $2.97 | +$0.03 | 50% 2177-2197 (4374) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 50¢ | $229.33 | $2.62 | +$9.56 | 53% 1889-1648 (3537) |
Invested
$2,122.53
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$21.66
Record
51%
360-345 (705)
Invested
$1,968.6
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$38.6
Record
5%
29-529 (558)
Invested
$271.52
Value
$133.12
PnL
+$1.23
Record
48%
3953-4307 (8260)
Invested
$61.06
Value
$62.96
PnL
+$1.91
Record
48%
720-766 (1486)
Invested
$30.6
Value
$30
PnL
-$0.6
Record
26%
249-694 (943)
Invested
$27.59
Value
$27.31
PnL
-$0.28
Record
67%
49-24 (73)
Invested
$8.8
Value
$8.63
PnL
-$0.17
Record
56%
3922-3103 (7025)
Invested
$2.94
Value
$2.97
PnL
+$0.03
Record
50%
2177-2197 (4374)
VeryLucky888Invested
$229.33
Value
$2.62
PnL
+$9.56
Record
53%
1889-1648 (3537)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.