Spread: Saints (-1.5)

5 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Panthers (18%) · Panthers at 53¢ · $124K held · ends Nov 15

Saints48¢Panthers52¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Panthers

Consensus Traders

Panthers 18%

Total Value

$124.1K

Combined PnL

$782.53

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 52.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

5 of 28 top traders (18%)23 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Saints48%

Panthers53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Panthers5 traders

Total Value$67.8K

Total Shares129,124

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Saints23 traders

Total Value$56.3K

Total Shares117,354

Combined PnL-$534.1

Panthers — 18%Saints — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-45 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

15% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSaints 94% · 18

Diverging

Hand-pickedSaints 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Saints 85% · 26

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	Panthersavg 51.5¢	$65.3K	$66.6K	+$1.3K	6% 10-159 (169)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Saintsavg 48¢	$23.5K	$23.5K	-$0	59% 531-362 (893)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Saintsavg 48.5¢	$12.4K	$12.2K	-$121.32	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
VeryLucky888CTR	Saintsavg 49.5¢	$9.9K	$9.6K	-$300	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
HI hi774cCTR	Saintsavg 48.5¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$20.1	26% 249-694 (943)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Saintsavg 48.5¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$17.48	48% 469-508 (977)
38 38791873984189CTR	Saintsavg 49¢	$3.6K	$1.5K	-$24.74	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Saintsavg 48¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$0	46% 39-46 (85)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Saintsavg 48¢	$790.08	$790.08	-$0	48% 68-75 (143)
NM NM-PCTR	Saintsavg 49.3¢	$554.75	$540	-$14.75	59% 3948-2729 (6677)
GC GC-PCTR	Saintsavg 49.3¢	$554.75	$540	-$14.75	42% 547-747 (1294)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Saintsavg 48¢	$528.81	$528.81	-$0	69% 1738-775 (2513)
TA takeormake	Panthersavg 48¢	$398.28	$431.47	+$33.19	57% 3682-2767 (6449)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Saintsavg 48.6¢	$436.3	$431.3	-$5	39% 234-370 (604)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Saintsavg 48¢	$426.18	$426.18	-$0	41% 160-233 (393)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Saintsavg 48¢	$417.45	$413.1	-$4.35	37% 1333-2226 (3559)
MA manoamano	Panthersavg 51¢	$345.22	$355.37	+$10.15	56% 44-35 (79)
DA DanielsDixon	Panthersavg 52¢	$260	$262.5	+$2.5	28% 29-73 (102)
SE sentrioCTR	Saintsavg 48.5¢	$221.64	$219.34	-$2.3	41% 1173-1667 (2840)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Saintsavg 49¢	$196.7	$192.69	-$4.01	47% 1186-1358 (2544)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Panthersavg 52¢	$181.78	$183.53	+$1.75	52% 419-387 (806)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Saintsavg 50¢	$300	$120	-$0	64% 145-81 (226)
PA Pan9XCTR	Saintsavg 49¢	$137.54	$108.54	-$2.05	50% 2174-2194 (4368)
0xheavy888CTR	Saintsavg 49.3¢	$110.32	$107.52	-$2.8	56% 663-529 (1192)
BA Bagwell306CTR<$100	Saintsavg 48¢	$47.52	$47.52	-$0	37% 93-159 (252)

Kch-Temp

Panthers

Invested

$65,283.89

Value

$66.6K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

10-159 (169)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Saints

Invested

$23,457.84

Value

$23.5K

PnL

-$0

Record

59%

531-362 (893)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Saints

Invested

$12,361.62

Value

$12.2K

PnL

-$121.32

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

VeryLucky888CTR

Saints

Invested

$9,905.16

Value

$9.6K

PnL

-$300

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

hi774cCTR

Saints

Invested

$1,953.44

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$20.1

Record

26%

249-694 (943)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Saints

Invested

$1,710.43

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$17.48

Record

48%

469-508 (977)

38791873984189CTR

Saints

Invested

$3,578.81

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$24.74

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Saints

Invested

$1,440

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

39-46 (85)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Saints

Invested

$790.08

Value

$790.08

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

68-75 (143)

NM-PCTR

Saints

Invested

$554.75

Value

$540

PnL

-$14.75

Record

59%

3948-2729 (6677)

GC-PCTR

Saints

Invested

$554.75

Value

$540

PnL

-$14.75

Record

42%

547-747 (1294)

SunlineTickerCTR

Saints

Invested

$528.81

Value

$528.81

PnL

-$0

Record

69%

1738-775 (2513)

takeormake

Panthers

Invested

$398.28

Value

$431.47

PnL

+$33.19

Record

57%

3682-2767 (6449)

BoomLaLaCTR

Saints

Invested

$436.3

Value

$431.3

PnL

-$5

Record

39%

234-370 (604)

mouzsynapseCTR

Saints

Invested

$426.18

Value

$426.18

PnL

-$0

Record

41%

160-233 (393)

LightParadoxCTR

Saints

Invested

$417.45

Value

$413.1

PnL

-$4.35

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

manoamano

Panthers

Invested

$345.22

Value

$355.37

PnL

+$10.15

Record

56%

44-35 (79)

DanielsDixon

Panthers

Invested

$260

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

28%

29-73 (102)

sentrioCTR

Saints

Invested

$221.64

Value

$219.34

PnL

-$2.3

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

SnakeBallCTR

Saints

Invested

$196.7

Value

$192.69

PnL

-$4.01

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Panthers

Invested

$181.78

Value

$183.53

PnL

+$1.75

Record

52%

419-387 (806)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Saints

Invested

$300

Value

$120

PnL

-$0

Record

64%

145-81 (226)

Pan9XCTR

Saints

Invested

$137.54

Value

$108.54

PnL

-$2.05

Record

50%

2174-2194 (4368)

0xheavy888CTR

Saints

Invested

$110.32

Value

$107.52

PnL

-$2.8

Record

56%

663-529 (1192)

Bagwell306CTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$47.52

Value

$47.52

PnL

-$0

Record

37%

93-159 (252)

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

5 of 28 top traders (18%)23 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-45 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

15% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSaints 94% · 18

Diverging

Hand-pickedSaints 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Saints 85% · 26

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Panthers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.