Spread: Panthers (-7.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Saints (60%) · Saints at 59¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 15

Panthers42¢Saints58¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Saints

Consensus Traders

Saints 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

$88.77

Smart Money Entry

56.7¢ → 58.5¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralSaints at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Saints

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Panthers42%

Saints59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Saints6 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares8,340

Combined PnL+$88.85

Panthers4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,650

Combined PnL-$0.08

Saints — 60%Panthers — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Saints. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePanthers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPanthers 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Saints 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Panthersavg 48¢	$4.3K	$4.2K	-$62.49	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 51.8¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$253.92
└ Panthers leg	Panthersavg 48¢	$2.3K	$2.0K	-$316.42
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Saintsavg 52¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$272.21	48% 720-766 (1486)
PA PacersThreeandahalf	Saintsavg 53¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$147.73	62% 1073-664 (1737)
AN Anon455CTR	Panthersavg 47¢	$942.55	$932.68	-$9.88	49% 486-502 (988)
38 38791873984189	Saintsavg 76.8¢	$1.1K	$757.24	-$315.88	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Saintsavg 50¢	$194	$200	+$6	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 50¢	$100	$101	+$1
└ Panthers leg	Panthersavg 47¢	$94	$99	+$5
BO BoomLaLa	Saintsavg 78¢	$195	$191.25	-$3.75	39% 234-370 (604)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Panthersavg 49¢	$170.06	$175.27	+$5.21	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Panthersavg 22¢	$66	$70.5	+$4.5	50% 748-738 (1486)
PA Pan9X<$100	Saintsavg 60.8¢	$43.34	$19.56	-$11.06	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
NO NotJump<$100	Saintsavg 57¢	$6.3	$5.91	-$0.39	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Panthersavg 20¢	$0.5	$0.59	+$0.09	57% 3682-2769 (6451)

RN1ARB<$100

Panthers

Invested

$4,301.62

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$62.49

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

Both legs:

Saints$1,964.9851.8¢+$253.92

Panthers$2,336.6448¢-$316.42

Multicoloured-Serf

Saints

Invested

$2,163

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$272.21

Record

48%

720-766 (1486)

PacersThreeandahalf

Saints

Invested

$1,423.58

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$147.73

Record

62%

1073-664 (1737)

Anon455CTR

Panthers

Invested

$942.55

Value

$932.68

PnL

-$9.88

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

38791873984189

Saints

Invested

$1,073.12

Value

$757.24

PnL

-$315.88

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Saints

Invested

$194

Value

$200

PnL

+$6

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

Both legs:

Invested

$195

Value

$191.25

PnL

-$3.75

Record

39%

234-370 (604)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Panthers

Invested

$170.06

Value

$175.27

PnL

+$5.21

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$66

Value

$70.5

PnL

+$4.5

Record

50%

748-738 (1486)

Pan9X<$100

Saints

Invested

$43.34

Value

$19.56

PnL

-$11.06

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

NotJump<$100

Saints

Invested

$6.3

Value

$5.91

PnL

-$0.39

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.59

PnL

+$0.09

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

Research grade

NeutralSaints at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Saints

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Saints. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePanthers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPanthers 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Saints 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Saints wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.