Spread: Panthers (-5.5)

2 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Saints (15%) · Saints at 57¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 15

Panthers43¢Saints57¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Saints

Consensus Traders

Saints 15%

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

-$744.95

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 57.5¢

-3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralSaints at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Saints

2 of 13 top traders (15%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Panthers43%

Saints57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Saints2 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares9,239

Combined PnL-$605.38

Panthers11 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares10,190

Combined PnL-$139.57

Saints — 15%Panthers — 85%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

15% of non-arb traders are on Saints. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSaints 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPanthers 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedPanthers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Panthers 85% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Saintsavg 59¢	$5.4K	$4.8K	-$591.48	59% 1183-828 (2011)
RN1CTR	Panthersavg 41¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$78.21	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Panthersavg 41.1¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$53.92	51% 572-546 (1118)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Panthersavg 41.2¢	$330.58	$316.57	-$14.01	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Panthersavg 41¢	$205	$197.5	-$7.5	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
AN Anon455<$100	Saintsavg 69¢	$95.91	$82.01	-$13.9	49% 486-502 (988)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Panthersavg 31¢	$38.99	$54.08	+$15.09	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Panthersavg 41.6¢	$41.6	$39.5	-$2.1	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Panthersavg 40¢	$12.95	$12.79	-$0.16	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Panthersavg 41¢	$7.38	$7.11	-$0.27	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Panthersavg 31¢	$4.1	$5.69	+$1.59	38% 1353-2203 (3556)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Panthersavg 40¢	$4.74	$4.68	-$0.06	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Panthersavg 40¢	$2	$1.98	-$0.02	50% 658-658 (1316)

primm

Saints

Invested

$5,368.83

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$591.48

Record

59%

1183-828 (2011)

RN1CTR

Panthers

Invested

$2,137.73

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$78.21

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Panthers

Invested

$1,384.28

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$53.92

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

6512395314597884CTR

Panthers

Invested

$330.58

Value

$316.57

PnL

-$14.01

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Panthers

Invested

$205

Value

$197.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

Anon455<$100

Saints

Invested

$95.91

Value

$82.01

PnL

-$13.9

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

VenusianCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$38.99

Value

$54.08

PnL

+$15.09

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$41.6

Value

$39.5

PnL

-$2.1

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$12.95

Value

$12.79

PnL

-$0.16

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$7.38

Value

$7.11

PnL

-$0.27

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

LimousinCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$4.1

Value

$5.69

PnL

+$1.59

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$4.74

Value

$4.68

PnL

-$0.06

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

658-658 (1316)

Research grade

NeutralSaints at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Saints

2 of 13 top traders (15%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

15% of non-arb traders are on Saints. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSaints 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPanthers 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedPanthers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Panthers 85% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Saints wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.