Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Saints, while the market favors Panthers (62%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Panthers (-2.5)

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Saints (67%) · Saints at 39¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 15

Panthers62¢Saints38¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Saints

Consensus Traders

Saints 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

-$277.83

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 38.5¢

-27% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralSaints at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Saints

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Panthers 62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Panthers62%

Saints39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Panthers4 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares9,683

Combined PnL+$551.65

Saints8 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares9,787

Combined PnL-$829.49

Panthers — 33%Saints — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Saints. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Panthers) and the top 1000 (14 on Saints) disagree here.

whaleSaints 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSaints 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedPanthers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Saints 71% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU lug	Panthersavg 45¢	$3.0K	$3.5K	+$561	65% 35-19 (54)
38 38791873984189CTR	Saintsavg 55.1¢	$2.0K	$1.5K	-$402.83	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
NE neymar1	Panthersavg 56¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$50	— 5-14 (19)
AN Anon455CTR	Saintsavg 55¢	$1.1K	$902.83	-$225.88	49% 486-502 (988)
PR primmCTR	Saintsavg 44¢	$805.2	$850.95	+$45.75	59% 1183-828 (2011)
0xheavy888CTR	Saintsavg 55.1¢	$666.35	$528.84	-$137.51	56% 679-534 (1213)
RN1	Panthersavg 53.6¢	$387.24	$406.38	+$19.14	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
fyrskenCTR	Saintsavg 56¢	$336	$294	-$42	49% 69-73 (142)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Saintsavg 55¢	$312.95	$248.69	-$64.26	48% 490-523 (1013)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Panthersavg 50.8¢	$211.51	$233.02	+$21.51	51% 572-546 (1118)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Panthersavg 56¢	$57	$57.04	+$0.04	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
└ Panthers leg	Panthersavg 56¢	$35	$35.18	+$0.18
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 44¢	$22	$21.85	-$0.15
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Saintsavg 56¢	$66.25	$56.67	-$9.58	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 56¢	$45.9	$35.84	-$10.06
└ Panthers leg	Panthersavg 55¢	$20.35	$20.83	+$0.48
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Saintsavg 49¢	$19.6	$17.48	-$2.12	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Saintsavg 50¢	$5.1	$4.46	-$0.63	50% 4049-4056 (8105)

lug

Panthers

Invested

$2,970

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$561

Record

65%

35-19 (54)

38791873984189CTR

Saints

Invested

$1,952.78

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$402.83

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

neymar1

Panthers

Invested

$1,119.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$50

Record

—

5-14 (19)

Anon455CTR

Saints

Invested

$1,128.71

Value

$902.83

PnL

-$225.88

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

primmCTR

Saints

Invested

$805.2

Value

$850.95

PnL

+$45.75

Record

59%

1183-828 (2011)

0xheavy888CTR

Saints

Invested

$666.35

Value

$528.84

PnL

-$137.51

Record

56%

679-534 (1213)

RN1

Panthers

Invested

$387.24

Value

$406.38

PnL

+$19.14

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

fyrskenCTR

Saints

Invested

$336

Value

$294

PnL

-$42

Record

49%

69-73 (142)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Saints

Invested

$312.95

Value

$248.69

PnL

-$64.26

Record

48%

490-523 (1013)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Panthers

Invested

$211.51

Value

$233.02

PnL

+$21.51

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

NotJumpARB<$100

Panthers

Invested

$57

Value

$57.04

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Both legs:

Invested

$66.25

Value

$56.67

PnL

-$9.58

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

Both legs:

Saints$45.956¢-$10.06

Panthers$20.3555¢+$0.48

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$19.6

Value

$17.48

PnL

-$2.12

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$5.1

Value

$4.46

PnL

-$0.63

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

Research grade

NeutralSaints at 39%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Saints

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Panthers 62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Saints. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Panthers) and the top 1000 (14 on Saints) disagree here.

whaleSaints 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSaints 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedPanthers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Saints 71% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Saints wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.