Spread: Panthers (-1.5)

11 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Panthers (50%) · Panthers at 64¢ · $38K held · ended Nov 15

Panthers64¢Saints36¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Panthers

Consensus Traders

Panthers 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$38.3K

Combined PnL

-$857.22

Smart Money Entry

47.7¢ → 63.5¢

+33% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

11 of 22 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Panthers64%

Saints37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Saints11 traders

Total Value$10.2K

Total Shares28,724

Combined PnL$-4.9K

Panthers11 traders

Total Value$21.2K

Total Shares36,165

Combined PnL+$4.0K

Saints — 50%Panthers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

61% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePanthers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPanthers 56% · 18

Aligned

Hand-pickedPanthers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Panthers 61% · 23

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GL glennyorkshireCTR	Saintsavg 52.9¢	$14.2K	$9.3K	$-4.9K	48% 229-253 (482)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319	Panthersavg 46¢	$6.4K	$7.6K	+$1.1K	59% 1150-796 (1946)
JU justaluckydude	Panthersavg 47¢	$4.8K	$6.8K	+$1.9K	50% 658-658 (1316)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Saintsavg 54¢	$8.8K	$6.4K	$-1.3K	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 54¢	$5.6K	$3.6K	$-2.1K
└ Panthers leg	Panthersavg 47¢	$2.0K	$2.8K	+$801.78
GA Gaditima	Panthersavg 56.1¢	$2.2K	$2.6K	+$377.46	49% 400-411 (811)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Panthersavg 47¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$251.93	51% 572-546 (1118)
AN Anon455	Panthersavg 47¢	$940	$1.1K	+$140	49% 486-502 (988)
SN SnakeBall	Panthersavg 47¢	$450.6	$517.71	+$67.11	47% 1204-1385 (2589)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Panthersavg 48¢	$384	$432	+$48	30% 495-1136 (1631)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Saintsavg 53¢	$365.79	$331.57	-$34.22	48% 490-523 (1013)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Saintsavg 52¢	$314.35	$304.62	-$9.73	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 52¢	$183.81	$162.6	-$21.21
└ Panthers leg	Panthersavg 49.6¢	$130.54	$142.02	+$11.48
alpheclabs2CTR	Saintsavg 32.8¢	$162.06	$227.15	+$65.08	45% 373-460 (833)
CM cm2897ARB<$100	Saintsavg 52¢	$132.76	$133.84	+$1.08	49% 1237-1284 (2521)
└ Panthers leg	Panthersavg 47¢	$62.04	$71.28	+$9.24
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 52¢	$70.72	$62.56	-$8.16
RN1	Panthersavg 54¢	$132.3	$132.3	+$0	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
38 38791873984189	Panthersavg 47.9¢	$2.6K	$103.77	+$129.04	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eARB<$100	Panthersavg 46.5¢	$92.98	$100.76	+$7.78	58% 4023-2943 (6966)
└ Panthers leg	Panthersavg 46.5¢	$66.98	$77.76	+$10.78
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 52¢	$26	$23	-$3
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Saintsavg 42.3¢	$97.97	$98.47	+$0.5	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Saintsavg 40.2¢	$85.23	$84.18	+$10.47	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Saintsavg 54¢	$54	$46	-$8	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Saintsavg 35¢	$30.8	$40.48	+$9.68	46% 998-1194 (2192)
dips.CTR<$100	Saintsavg 52¢	$41.04	$40.28	-$0.76	48% 1314-1407 (2721)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Panthersavg 44¢	$25.19	$30.92	+$5.73	43% 246-326 (572)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Saintsavg 56¢	$32.06	$26.34	-$5.73	39% 234-370 (604)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Saintsavg 42¢	$26.46	$21.74	-$4.73	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Saintsavg 52.1¢	$11.96	$10.55	-$1.41	56% 679-534 (1213)

glennyorkshireCTR

Saints

Invested

$14,194.01

Value

$9.3K

PnL

$-4.9K

Record

48%

229-253 (482)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319

Panthers

Invested

$6,438.07

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

59%

1150-796 (1946)

justaluckydude

Panthers

Invested

$4,846.49

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

50%

658-658 (1316)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Saints

Invested

$8,752.96

Value

$6.4K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

Both legs:

Saints$5,647.3454¢$-2.1K

Panthers$2,036.9647¢+$801.78

Gaditima

Panthers

Invested

$2,242.54

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$377.46

Record

49%

400-411 (811)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Panthers

Invested

$1,691.53

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$251.93

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

Anon455

Panthers

Invested

$940

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$140

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

SnakeBall

Panthers

Invested

$450.6

Value

$517.71

PnL

+$67.11

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Panthers

Invested

$384

Value

$432

PnL

+$48

Record

30%

495-1136 (1631)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Saints

Invested

$365.79

Value

$331.57

PnL

-$34.22

Record

48%

490-523 (1013)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Saints

Invested

$314.35

Value

$304.62

PnL

-$9.73

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

Both legs:

Saints$183.8152¢-$21.21

Panthers$130.5449.6¢+$11.48

alpheclabs2CTR

Saints

Invested

$162.06

Value

$227.15

PnL

+$65.08

Record

45%

373-460 (833)

cm2897ARB<$100

Saints

Invested

$132.76

Value

$133.84

PnL

+$1.08

Record

49%

1237-1284 (2521)

Both legs:

Panthers$62.0447¢+$9.24

Saints$70.7252¢-$8.16

RN1

Panthers

Invested

$132.3

Value

$132.3

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

38791873984189

Panthers

Invested

$2,631.68

Value

$103.77

PnL

+$129.04

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eARB<$100

Panthers

Invested

$92.98

Value

$100.76

PnL

+$7.78

Record

58%

4023-2943 (6966)

Both legs:

Panthers$66.9846.5¢+$10.78

Saints$2652¢-$3

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$97.97

Value

$98.47

PnL

+$0.5

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$85.23

Value

$84.18

PnL

+$10.47

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$54

Value

$46

PnL

-$8

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

lryyyCTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$30.8

Value

$40.48

PnL

+$9.68

Record

46%

998-1194 (2192)

dips.CTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$41.04

Value

$40.28

PnL

-$0.76

Record

48%

1314-1407 (2721)

NatoAlfista<$100

Panthers

Invested

$25.19

Value

$30.92

PnL

+$5.73

Record

43%

246-326 (572)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$32.06

Value

$26.34

PnL

-$5.73

Record

39%

234-370 (604)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$26.46

Value

$21.74

PnL

-$4.73

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$11.96

Value

$10.55

PnL

-$1.41

Record

56%

679-534 (1213)

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 64%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

11 of 22 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

61% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePanthers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPanthers 56% · 18

Aligned

Hand-pickedPanthers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Panthers 61% · 23

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Panthers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.