Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 6 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bills vs. Jets: O/U 50.5

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (46%) · Under at 50¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 15

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 46%

Total Value

$28.9K

Combined PnL

$273.57

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 49.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$15.3K

Total Shares30,322

Combined PnL+$153.11

Over7 traders

Total Value$13.6K

Total Shares26,854

Combined PnL+$120.46

Under — 46%Over — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 50¢	$14.5K	$14.7K	+$145.32	48% 636-676 (1312)
FeedTheBigBird	Overavg 50¢	$10.0K	$10.1K	+$100	64% 28-16 (44)
MA MAGATheeStallion	Overavg 50¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30	6% 11-176 (187)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 50¢	$264.59	$266.66	+$2.07	38% 395-632 (1027)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 50¢	$250	$252.5	+$2.5	59% 3799-2617 (6416)
RollAwayTheDew	Overavg 51¢	$220.32	$213.84	-$6.48	18% 58-270 (328)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 51¢	$131.75	$127.87	-$3.87	54% 1473-1278 (2751)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$79.5	$80.3	+$0.8	54% 286-244 (530)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 50¢	$55.5	$56.06	+$0.55	45% 268-322 (590)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Underavg 48.2¢	$42.81	$44.89	+$2.09	69% 43-19 (62)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Overavg 50¢	$24	$24.24	+$0.24	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$4.48	$4.81	+$0.33	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 49¢	$2.42	$2.45	+$0.02	50% 1601-1625 (3226)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$14,532.13

Value

$14.7K

PnL

+$145.32

Record

48%

636-676 (1312)

FeedTheBigBird

Over

Invested

$10,000

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$100

Record

64%

28-16 (44)

MAGATheeStallion

Over

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30

Record

11-176 (187)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$264.59

Value

$266.66

PnL

+$2.07

Record

38%

395-632 (1027)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$250

Value

$252.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

59%

3799-2617 (6416)

RollAwayTheDew

Over

Invested

$220.32

Value

$213.84

PnL

-$6.48

Record

18%

58-270 (328)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$131.75

Value

$127.87

PnL

-$3.87

Record

54%

1473-1278 (2751)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$79.5

Value

$80.3

PnL

+$0.8

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$55.5

Value

$56.06

PnL

+$0.55

Record

45%

268-322 (590)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$42.81

Value

$44.89

PnL

+$2.09

Record

69%

43-19 (62)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Over

Invested

$24

Value

$24.24

PnL

+$0.24

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.48

Value

$4.81

PnL

+$0.33

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$2.42

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.