Bills vs. Jets: O/U 46.5

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (82%) · Over at 51¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 15

Over51¢Under49¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

-$47.45

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 50.5¢

-8% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares5,982

Combined PnL+$265.64

Over9 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares7,883

Combined PnL-$313.1

Under — 18%Over — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 49¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$18.71	51% 572-546 (1118)
RN1	Overavg 51.9¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$39.53	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 37¢	$830.6	$1.1K	+$246.94	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
BI biying88888	Overavg 51¢	$760.41	$752.96	-$7.46	44% 244-314 (558)
SU SunlineTicker	Overavg 63¢	$709.38	$574.26	-$135.12	69% 1738-777 (2515)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 63¢	$630	$510	-$120	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
AN Anon455	Overavg 50.2¢	$301.73	$303.6	+$1.87	49% 486-502 (988)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 51¢	$255	$252.5	-$2.5	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 51¢	$102	$101	-$1	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Underavg 49¢	$87.25	$87.38	+$0.13	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$49	$49.5	+$0.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$38.25	$37.88	-$0.38
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 63¢	$45.99	$37.23	-$8.76	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 52¢	$20.8	$20.2	-$0.6	50% 658-658 (1316)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$1,831.32

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$18.71

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,479.53

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$39.53

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$830.6

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$246.94

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

biying88888

Over

Invested

$760.41

Value

$752.96

PnL

-$7.46

Record

44%

244-314 (558)

SunlineTicker

Over

Invested

$709.38

Value

$574.26

PnL

-$135.12

Record

69%

1738-777 (2515)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$630

Value

$510

PnL

-$120

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$301.73

Value

$303.6

PnL

+$1.87

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$255

Value

$252.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$102

Value

$101

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

NotJumpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$87.25

Value

$87.38

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Both legs:

Invested

$45.99

Value

$37.23

PnL

-$8.76

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$20.8

Value

$20.2

PnL

-$0.6

Record

50%

658-658 (1316)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.