Bills vs. Jets: O/U 40.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 55¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 15

Over45¢Under55¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.4K

Combined PnL

-$297.54

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 55¢

+12% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares16,061

Combined PnL+$561.9

Over4 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares12,560

Combined PnL-$859.43

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 52.8¢	$5.2K	$5.5K	+$249.45	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 45¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	-$44.44	59% 1183-828 (2011)
AN Anon455	Underavg 52¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$104.55	49% 486-502 (988)
RN1CTR	Overavg 51.1¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$222.58	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$913.31	$910.66	-$2.65	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$517.43	$470.8	-$46.63
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.1¢	$395.88	$439.86	+$43.98
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 79¢	$1.5K	$642.28	-$586.01	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
VE Venusian	Underavg 21¢	$384.62	$586.09	+$201.47	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 55¢	$308.47	$313.09	+$4.62	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Underavg 55¢	$116.27	$59.86	+$3.01	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55¢	$36.33	$36.66	+$3.83
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.1¢	$23	$23.2	-$0.82
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 79¢	$45.93	$39.54	-$6.4	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 21¢	$4.06	$6.19	+$2.13	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Underavg 32¢	$5.12	$4.8	-$0.32	51% 572-546 (1118)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$5,214.48

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$249.45

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$3,999.99

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$44.44

Record

59%

1183-828 (2011)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$2,243.03

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$104.55

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,251.79

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$222.58

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$913.31

Value

$910.66

PnL

-$2.65

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

Both legs:

Over$517.4350¢-$46.63

Under$395.8849.1¢+$43.98

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$1,516.29

Value

$642.28

PnL

-$586.01

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$384.62

Value

$586.09

PnL

+$201.47

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$308.47

Value

$313.09

PnL

+$4.62

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

NotJumpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$116.27

Value

$59.86

PnL

+$3.01

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Both legs:

Invested

$45.93

Value

$39.54

PnL

-$6.4

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$4.06

Value

$6.19

PnL

+$2.13

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Under

Invested

$5.12

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$0.32

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.